Mass observation

Abstract

The previous chapter concentrated on the complex nature of unique historical events and the impossibility to calculate or predict them, as well as upon the futility of any attempt at explaining the effect of hazard or contingency. All the time, we kept in mind that there are simpler elements which occur frequently enough to be governed by rules of probability rather than by hazard, as regards the majority of them and not any particular individual case. In fact, it is both obvious and commonplace that human history contains innumerable factors which occur in mass series and are repeated with some measure of regularity and uniformity. These, then, constitute exponents of rules or laws of existence. They can be observed by the aid of statistical techniques and the probability of their occurrence can be calculated and foreseen.