Hypotheses

Abstract

There is a great deal to suggest that economic growth cannot continue for very long at today’s historically high level. A stagnant population and employment participation rate, coupled with a diminishing number of hours worked per capita, suggest that the contribution made by working hours to growth diminishes over time. Productivity growth also appears to be diminishing. Future scarcity prices of fossil fuels, in common with stricter environmental rules, may also depress economic growth. One hypothesis, therefore, is that GDP growth in OECD countries will continue to decline from its very high post-war level.