The Implications of the New Paradigm

Abstract

The history of the shift in standard population forecasting methodology has come to an end. By the end of the inter-war period, demographic forecasting had acquired a dominant position. If the history is considered in a strictly Dutch context, there are not many indications of a shift of paradigm in the study of future population. It is true, there was a vehement debate about forecasting method in the Netherlands going on. However, this was a debate on the merits of competing demographic forecasting methodologies, not between demographic forecasting methodology and geometrical or logistic laws of population growth.