Abstract
The term ‘model’ is a fragile one. To some it means a theoretical methodology with equations and definitions, to others it is a simple mental reasoning process, and to still others a computer with data bases and algorithms. In this chapter we consider computer-based models that are used to forecast energy use, but we will only describe their theoretical methods and underlying mental reasoning processes. The technical descriptions of the algorithms and data bases are left to their creators. We also consider only models whose primary focus is forecasting. These models are often the arms of consulting firms and government agencies. This paper draws much of its information base from the Energy Modeling Forum Study 8 (EMF-8) on Industrial Energy Use and Conservation. Some example forecasts from this study are presented as well. Other forecasting models that are not included in EMF-8 have been added to the list of EMF-8 participants for presentation and discussion. This paper is not intended to be a comprehensive review and the author apologizes in advance to those modellers whose modelling activities have been overlooked.
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© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Boyd, G.A. (1992). Forecasting industrial energy use. In: Sterner, T. (eds) International Energy Economics. International Studies in Economic Modelling. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2334-1_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2334-1_2
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