Skip to main content

Ambiguity and Government Risk-Bearing for Low-Probability Events

  • Chapter
Government Risk-Bearing

Abstract

What is the appropriate role of the federal government in dealing with ambiguous risks, where the insurance industry is reluctant to offer coverage and homeowners and businesses have a limited interest in voluntarily adopting loss-reduction measures? This question is of increasing importance today because of the potentially high costs to society from low-probability events.

Many of the ideas in this paper are based on joint work with colleagues and students. In particular, the discussion on earthquake risks reflects research undertaken with Ann Butler, Neil Doherty, Anne Kleffner, and Jack Morrison; Carrie Ericson helped to summarize the legislative and regulatory history association with the underground storage tank risk. This research was partially supported by NSF Grant #SES88-09299 and a grant from the Russel Sage Found.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Curley, S., Yates, F., and Abrams, R. 1986. “Psychological Sources of Ambiguity Avoidance.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 38: 230–256.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dames and Moore. 1990. Loss-Reduction Provisions of a National Earthquake Insurance Program. Prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA-200, September.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doherty, N., Kleindorfer, P., and Kunreuther, H. 1990. “Insurance Perspective on an Integrated Hazardous Waste Management Strategy.” Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 57: 407–427.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duus, G., and Telsey, A. 1990. “Underground Storage Tank Update.” Journal of Property Management 55 (March/April): 54–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • Earthquake Project. 1990. Catastrophic Earthquakes: The Need to Insure against Economic Disaster. Boston: National Committee on Property Insurance.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, I., and Becker, G. 1972. “Market Insurance, Self-Insurance, and Self-Protection.” Journal of Political Economy 80: 623–648.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greenwald, B., and Stiglitz, J. 1990. “Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 80: 160–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hogarth, R., and Kunreuther, H. 1992. “Pricing Insurance and Warranties: Ambiguity and Correlated Risks.” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H. 1973. Recovery from Natural Disasters: Insurance or Federal Aid? Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H. 1989. “The Role of Actuaries and Underwriters in Insuring Ambiguous Risks.” Risk Analysis 9: 319–328.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H., and Kleffner, A. 1992. “Should Earthquake Measures Be Voluntary or Required?” Journal of Regulatory Economics, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H., Ginsberg, R., Miller, L., Sagl, P., Slovic, P., Borkan, B., and Katz, N. 1978. Disaster Insurance Protection: Public Policy Lessons. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunreuther, H., Hogarth, R., Meszaros, J., and Spranca, M. 1991. “Ambiguity and Underwriter Decision Processes.” Working Paper #91-10-03, Wharton Risk and Decision Processes Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Litan, R. 1990. “Insurer Insolvency and Earthquake Insurance: Lessons from the Thrift Crisis.” Address to the Government Briefing Luncheon of the Insurance Information Institute, Washington, D.C., June 12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Litan, R. 1991. A National Earthquake Mitigation and Insurance Plan: Response to Market Failures. Boston: The Earthquake Project.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lowenstein, G., and Prelac, D. 1989. “Decision-Making over Time and under Uncertainty: A Common Approach.” Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • March, J., and Shapira, Z. 1987. “Management Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking.” Management Science 33: 1404–1408.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mayers, D., and Smith, C. 1983. “On the Corporate Demand for Insurance.” Journal of Business 55: 281–296.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mayers, D., and Smith, C. 1990. “On the Corporate Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Reinsurance Market.” Journal of Business 63: 19–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oullette, R., and Maestri, B. 1990. “Conducting the Environmental Audit.” Journal of Property Management (March/April): 16–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palm, R., Michael, H., Blanchard, R.D., and Lyons, D. 1990. Earthquake Insurance in California: Environmental Policy and Individual Decision Making. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ringleb, A., and Wiggins, S. 1990. “Liability and Large-Scale, Long-Term Hazards.” Journal of Political Economy 98: 574–595.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schachner, M. 1990. “Rules Will Reduce Storage Tank Leakage.” Business Insurance 24 (May 14): 67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shalowitz, D. 1990. “Insurers Blast Funding of State EIL Agencies Despite EPA Approval.” Business Insurance 24 (October 3): 18–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Steinbrugge, K., McClure, F., and Snow, A. 1969. Studies in Seismicity and Earthquake Damage Statistics. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce (Appendix A), COM-71-00053.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone, J. 1973. “A Theory of Capacity and the Insurance of Catastrophic Risks.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 40 (Parts I and II): 231–243 and 339–355.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tetlock, P. 1985. “Accountability: The Neglected Social Context of Judgments and Choice.” Research in Organizational Behavior, vol. 7. Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, A., Sattah, S., and Slovic, P. 1988. “Contingent Weighting Judgment and Choice.” Psychological Review 95: 371–384.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeckhauser, R., and Viscusi, W.K. 1990. “Risk within Reason.” Science 248: 559–564.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Mark S. Sniderman

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kunreuther, H., Kane, E.J. (1993). Ambiguity and Government Risk-Bearing for Low-Probability Events. In: Sniderman, M.S. (eds) Government Risk-Bearing. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2184-2_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2184-2_2

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-4967-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-011-2184-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics