Assessment of forecast technology for flood control operation

Abstract

Flood control operations require threat detection and assessment, warning, and project operation. This text emphasizes the hydrologic engineering aspects of the flood threat detection and assessment. It discusses project operations for flood control. The flood forecast and project operation are referred to as real-time water control. This is the subject of a major new effort in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers R&D.

Real-time water control begins with data collection, primarily precipitation and streamflow. The Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) developed a data storage system, HECDSS, to aid in this data collection and storage, and transfer of information between simulation models. A special program was developed to estimate basin-average precipitation from various gauges. Data quality control is an important aspect of the system.

Some flood forecasts can be made with only precipitation and streamflow observations. Other forecasts use simulation models to estimate flood flows throughout a river basin. Examples of operational systems of both the data-only and simulation-model types are given. The ALERT and similar systems for observation, simulation, and warning of flood potential are presented. Several prominent simulation models (such as the HEC-1F, NWSRFS, and SSARR) currently used in flood runoff estimation are also presented. The operational process of data observation, future flood forecast, new data observation, and updated flood forecast are emphasized.