Abstract
The short-term rainfall prediction method proposed by the authors is extended to a stochastic method so that the method could provide in real-time the accuracy of the areal rainfall predicted using radar information. The extension was carried out based on the investigation on the stochastic properties of model parameters of the basic prediction model. First, we present results of theoretical analyses on the features of analytically predicted accuracy relating to the patterns of the movement of rainfall distribution. Next, we present a case study using actual rainfall distribution observed by radar during a Japanese typhoon. The results show that we can predict the mean square error of predicted areal rainfall at least within 1 hour ahead by the method proposed here.
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© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Takasao, T., Shiiba, M., Nakakita, E. (1994). A Real-Time Estimation of the Accuracy of Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Using Radar. In: Hipel, K.W. (eds) Stochastic and Statistical Methods in Hydrology and Environmental Engineering. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 10/4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1072-3_26
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1072-3_26
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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