Energy Technology R&D Investment Analysis

Abstract

This review of attempts to prioritize national energy technology R&D investments suggests a model for an ideal approach. It involves estimating the energy significance of R&D success as well as the economic, environmental, and energy security improvements which can result for each of a very broad range of energy technologies and technology areas. Also, the possible cost and time scale of R&D should be estimated as well as its risk and the need for government support or stimulation. The portfolio should be assessed against scenarios of future possible circumstances both good and bad. A second step should be to assess the importance of basic or cross-cutting research.

None of the past attempts at R&D prioritization reviewed in this paper were successful in performing all of these steps particularly, the last one. It is perhaps naive to believe the ideal model will even be achieved, but recent advances in interactive Personal Computer software and hardware can improve the results and the understanding of results by groups of experts and decision makers as well.

Research sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, under contract DE-ACO5-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc.