Abstract
By anticipating the future in a systematic way forest scenario planning can reduce uncertainty and improve the chance that future developments will agree with specified objectives. Scenario planning models may be developed for large scale applications on a national or subcontinental scale or for use in local planning. This contribution specifically deals with scenario techniques on the forest management unit level. A series of techniques for generating timber harvest scenarios, including age-class simulation, area change models and multi-period harvest scheduling for even-aged forests as well as continuous cover forests are presented with numerical examples, including various optimization techniques. Specific end products require a particular quality of the raw material, and as the end products do become more variable and the processing opportunities more sophisticated, the importance of raw material quality increases. Therefore, not only are total yields and volumes of interest in forest scenario planning, but increasingly also the distribution of tree species, tree dimensions and timber quality. For this reason, a specific application involving the structure of timber product yields is discussed. Finally, scenario techniques for evaluating forestry activities are presented with two examples: a beech forest in Europe and a timber farm in South Africa.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Barros, O. and Weintraub, A., 1982: Planning for a vertically integrated forest industry. Operations research 30: 1168–1182.
Beese, F., 1996: Indikatoren für eine multifunktionelle Waldnutzung. Forstw. Cbl. 115: 65–79.
Bellman, R.E., 1954. The theory of dynamic programming. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 60:503–516.
Bergen, V., 1997: Volkswirtschaftslehre, Teil I. Lecture Kotes, University of Göttingen: 62 pp.
Biolley, H., 1980: Oeuvre écrite. Supplement to the Zeitschrift des Schweizerischen Forstvereins, No. 66: 458 p.
Blandon, P, 1985. Forest Economics and the Gentan Probability Distribution. J. Jap. For. Soc. 67 (12): 478–485.
Breitenbach, F. v., 1974: Southern Cape Forests and trees. The Government Printer, Pretoria: 328 p.
Breymann, 1868: Anleitung zur Holzmesskunst, Waldertragsbestimmung und Waldwertberechnung. Wien.
Brodie, J.D., Adams, D.M. & Kao, C., 1978. Analysis of economic impacts on thinning and rotation for Douglas-fir, using dynamic programming. Forest Science 24(4): 513–522.
Brouillet, L., Depierre, A., Demolis, C., Verdot, M., Preney, S., Latreille, C., Giovanini, J.-P., Herbert, I., Nicot, P., u. Allegrini, C., 1991: La Silviculture des Peuplements Réguliers de Hêtre en Franche-Comté — de la Régénération Naturelle à la Première Éclaircie. ONF Bulletin Technique Nr. 22: 9–42.
Buongiorno, J and Michie, B.R, 1980. A matrix model of uneven-aged forest management. For. Sci. 26: 609–625.
Buongiorno, J and Gilless, J.K, 1987. Forest Management and Economics. Macmillan, New York.
Carcea, 1986: Determination of the forest’s allowable cut in various countries of the world. IUFRO document, Inst. de Cercetari si amenajari silvice, Romania: 268 p.
Chang, S.J., 1998: A generalized Faustmann model for the determination of optimal harvest age. Can. J. For. Res. 28: 652–659.
Clutter, J.L., Fortson, J.C., Pienaar, L.V., Brister, G.H. u. Bailey, R.L., 1983: Timber Management — A Quantitative Approach. Wiley. S.238–252.
Cotta, H., 1804: Systematische Anleitung zur Taxation der Waldungen. Sander, Berlin.
Dreyfus, Ph. and Bonnet, F.-R., 1995: CAPSIS — Logiciel de simulation de conduites sylvicoles. Rev. For. Fr. XLVII, No sp: 111–115.
Dunkel, K., Elsasser, P., Oesten, G. u. Roeder, A., 1994: Wertschätzung des Waldes aus der Sicht der Waldbesucher — Ergebnisse einer Zielgebietsbefragung im Pfalzerwald. Mitt. d. Forstl. Vers. Anst. Rheinld-Pfalz 27/94: 1–72.
Dykstra, D.P., 1984: Mathematical programming for natural resource management. McGraw-Hill, New York: 318 p.
Eid, T., 1993: Models for economical forest management planning in Norway. Proc. Symp. Modelling in forest management planning and managerial economics — a critical investigation. Lithuanian Agricultural Academy: 35–43.
Eyre, F.H., 1980: Forest cover types of the US and Canada. Soc. Am. For., Washington D.C.
FORPLAN, 1986: FORPLAN — An evaluation of a forest planning tool. USDA Gen Techn Rep RM-140: 164pp.
Füldner, K., 1995: Strukturbeschreibung von Buchen-Edellaubholz-Mischwäldern. Cuvillier Verlag, Göttingen: 146 S.
Gadow, K. v. and Bredenkamp, B., 1992: Forest Management. Academica, Pretoria.
Gadow, K. v. and Hui, G.Y., 1999: Modelling forest development. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht: 213 S.
Garcia, O., 1990: Linear programming and related approaches in forest planning. N. Zealand J. of For. Science 20 (3): 307–331.
Gehrhardt, E., 1930: Ertragstafeln für reine und gleichartige Hochwaldbestände von Eiche, Buche, Tanne, Fichte, Kiefer, grüner Douglasie und Lärche. 2. Aufl. Julius Springer Verlag.
Gehrmann, D., 1975: Die Bewertung des Windwurfrisikos der Fichte auf verschiedenen Standortstypen. Mitt. d. Hess. Landesforstverwaltung, No 12.
Griesel, F. and Gadow, K.v., 1995: Naturgemäßer — naturnaher — ökologischer Waldbau -Begriffsbestimmungen, Konzepte und Richtlinien, Anwendungsbeispiele. Internal report, Institute of Forsteinrichtung, Univ. of Göttingen: 20pp.
Hansen, G.D., 1987: Effects of diameter distribution on the growth of northern hardwoods. Can. J. For. Res. 17 (1).
Hartig, G.L., 1795: Anweisung zur Taxation der Forste, oder zur Bestimmung des Holzertrags der Wälder. Heyer, Gießen.
Hartig, Th., 1847: Vergleichende Untersuchungen über den Ertrag der Rotbuche. Verlag Albert Förstner, Berlin.
Hasenauer, H., Moser, M. u. Eckmüllner, O., 1994: Programmbeschreibung. Distanzabhängiger Wachstumssimulator für Mischbestände, MOSES 2.0. Inst. f. Waldwachstumsforschung, Universität f. Bodenkultur, Wien: 36 S.
Helliwell, R., 1993: Newsletter 4. Continuous Cover Forestry Group, UK.
Hobbelstad, K. and Hofstad, O., 1988: AWIRK-3, a model for long-term forest planning. Med. Norsk Institutt for Skogsforskning 41.35: 504–516.
Hoen, H., 1996: Forestry Scenario Modelling for Economic Analysis — experiences using the GAYA-JLP model. In: Päivinen, R., Roihuvuo, L. and Siitonen, M., (eds) 1996: Large-scale forestry scenario models — experiences and requirements. European Forest Institute. EFI Proceedings No. 5: 79–88.
Hoganson, H.M. and Rose, D.W., 1984: A simulation approach for optimal timber management scheduling. For. Sci. 30 (1): 200–238.
Hoganson, H.M., 1996: Using Dtran for the Minnesota GEIS. In: Päivinen, R., Roihuvuo, L. and Siitonen, M., (eds) 1996: Large-scale forestry scenario models — experiences and requirements. European Forest Institute. EFI Proceedings No. 5: 143–152.
Hollenstein, K, 1997: Analyse, Bewertung und Management von Naturrisiken. Hochschulverlag AG der ETH Zürich: 191 p.
Jansen, J.J., 1996: Opbrengsttabel voor de beuk (Fagus sylvatica) in Nederland — een OPTAB — modificatie door middel van empirische simulatie, Gebaseerd op proefperken uit Noord-Duitsland en Zuid-Zweden. Hinkeloord report No. 16, Landbouwuniversiteit Wageningen: 36 p.
Johnson, K.N. and Scheurman, H.L., 1977: Techniques for prescribing optimal timber harvest investment under different objectives — discussion and synthesis. For. Sci. Monograph 18.
Kahn, M., 1995: Quasikausale Modellierung des Standort-Leistungsbezuges als Voraussetzung zum Aufbau flexibler Mischbestands-Modelle. Forstwissenschaftliches Centralblatt 114: 175–187.
Kallio, M., Propol, A. and Seppälä, R., 1981: A model for the forest sector. In Dantzig, G.B., Dempster, M.A.H. and Kallio, M.J. (ed): Large scale linear programming. Internat. Inst, for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria: 1055–1100.
Kärkkäinen, M. 1980. Grading of pine sawlog stems. Comm. Inst. For. Fenn. 96(5): 1–152. (In Finnish with English summary.)
Kassier, HW, 1976. ‘n Oorsig van beplanning en beplanningstegnieke in die bosbou met spesiale verwysing na oesre‰ling. Unpublished MSc thesis, University of Stellenbosch.
Konohira, Y and Amano, M, 1986. Methods for the forests allowable cut calculation in Japan. In: Carcea, F (ed): Determination of the forests; allowable cut in various countries of the world. IUFRO, Bucharets: 149–157.
Kouba, J., 1989: The theory of an estimate of the development of calamities and of management of the process of forest adjustment to normal forest. Lesnictvi 35 (10): 925–944.
Kramer, H., 1988: Waldwachstumslehre. Verlag Paul Parey, Hamburg und Berlin.
Kroeger, W., 1992: Grundzüge der Sicherheit technischer Systeme. Lecture notes, ETHZ Zurich.
Kurth, A., 1976: Lecture notes, Ertragskunde. Eidgen. Techn. Hochsch., Zürich.
Kurth, H., Gerold, D. and Dittrich, K, 1987: Reale Waldentwicklung und Zielwald — Grundlagen nachhaltiger Systemregelung des Waldes. Wiss. Zeitschr. d. TU Dresden: 121–137.
Lappi, J., 1992: JLP — a linear programming package for management planning. The Finnish Forest Res. Inst., Res. Paper 414: 131pp.
Laughton, F.S., 1937: The silviculture of the indigenous forests of the Union of South Africa with special reference to the forests of the Knysna region. Sci. Bull. 157, Forestry Series 7, Government Printer, Pretoria: 169 p.
Leuschner, A., 1990: Forest regulation, harvest scheduling and planning techniques. John Wiley: 281 p.
Madrigal Collazo, A., Alvarez Gonzalez, J.G., Rodriguez Soalleiro, R. and Rojo Alboreca, A., 1999: Tablas de producción para los montes españoles. Fundación Conde del Valle de Salazar, Madrid: 253 p.
Meffe, G.K., 1996: Conserving genetic diversity in natural systems. In: Szaro & Johnston, 1996: 41–57.
Meyer, H.A., 1933: Eine mathematisch-statistische Untersuchung über den Aufbau des Plenterwaldes. Schweiz. Zeitschr. Forstwes. 84: 88–103, 124–131.
Mitscherlich, G., 1952: Der Tannen-Fichten-(Buchen)-Plenterwald. Heft 8 d. Schriftenreihe d. Bad. Forstl. Vers. Anst., Freiburg: 42 p.
Mlinsek, D., 1994: Der naturnahe Waldbau — sein kognitiver Weg — eine Herausforderung. Der Dauerwald 10: 35–43.
Murray, D. M. and Gadow, K. v., 1993: A flexible yield model for regional timber forecasting. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 17 (2): 112–115.
Nabuurs, G.J. & Päivinen, R. (eds.), 1996. Large scale forestry scenario models — a compilation and review. European Forest Insitute working papers 10. Joensuu, Finland. 174 pp.
Nagel, J., 1996: Anwendungsprogramm zur Bestandesbewertung und zur Prognose der Bestandesentwicklung. Forst u.Holz 51 (3): 76–78.
Newnham, R.M., 1976: Computer may cut costs $l-2/cord. Pulp Pap. Can. 77 (9): 73–79.
Newnham, R.M., 1991: LOGPLAN II — a model for planning logging and regeneration activities. For. Can. Petawawa Nat. For. Inst. Inf. Rep. PI-X-102.
Otto, H.-J., 1994: Die Verwirklichung naturgemäßer Waldwirtschaft in den Niedersächsischen Landesforsten — Chancen und Probleme. Der Dauerwald 10: 3–23.
Paulsen, J.C., 1795: Praktische Anweisung zum Forstwesen. Detmold.
Pearson, S.M., Turner, M.G., Gardner, R.H. and O’Neill, R.V., 1996. An organism-based perspective of habitat fragmentation. In: Szaro & Johnston, 1996: 41–57.
Pesonen, M., 1995: Non-Industrial Private Landowners’ Choices of Timber Management Strategies and Potential Allowable Cut — case of Pohjois-Savo. Acta Forestalia Fennica 247: 31 pp.
Peyron, J.-L., 1993: Présentation illustrée d’une méthode de planification de la gestion forestière et de détermination de l’effort de régéneration. Rev. For. Fr. XLV (1): 59–73.
Pielou, E.C., 1961: Segregation and Symmetry in two-species Populations as studied by nearest Neighbour Relations. J. Ecol. 49: 255–269.
Pnevmaticos, S.M., Mann, S.H. 1972. Dynamic programming in tree bucking. Forest Products Journal 22(2): 26–30.
Pretzsch, H., 1993: Analyse und Reproduktion räumlicher Bestandesstrukturen — Versuche mit dem Strukturgenerator STRUGEN. Schriften aus der Forstl. Fak. d. Univ. Göttingen u. d. Niedere. Forstl. Vers. Anst., Band 114, J.D. Sauerländer’s Verlag.
Pretzsch, H., 1995: Perspektiven einer modellorientierten Waldwachstumsforschung. Forstwissenschaft-liches Centralblatt 114: 188–209.
Pukkala, T. and Kangas, J, 1993: A Heuristic optimization method for forest planning and decision making. Scand. J. For. Res. 8: 560–570.
Puumalainen, J., 1998: Optimal cross-cutting and sensitivity analysis for various log dimension constraints by using dynamic programming approach. Scand. J. For. Res. 13: 74–82.
Randall, J. H. and Gadow, K. v., 1990: An evaluation of the use of “Gentan” probabilities in forestry planning. South Afr. For. J. No. 154: 27–35.
Rautiainen, O., 1999: Growth dynamics and management of Shorea robusta forests in Southern Nepal. Diss. Faculty of Fortestry, University of Joensuu.
Rodriguez Soalleiro, R. J., Alvarez Gonzalez, J. G. u. Vega Alonso, G., 1994: Pineiro do Pais — Modelo dinamico de crecemento de masas regulares de Pinus pinaster Aiton en Galicia. Xunta de Galicia:40 S.
Rodriguez, L., 1996: A Microcomputer Program for Solving Forest Scheduling Problems with Heuristic Approaches. In: Päivinen, R., Roihuvuo, L. and Siitonen, M., (eds) 1996: Large-scale forestry scenario models — experiences and requirements. European Forest Institute. EFI Proceedings No. 5: 153–166.
Rojo, A. and Montero, G., 1996: El Pino Silvestre en la Sierra de Guadarrama. Ministerio de Agriculture, Pesca y Alimentacion, Madrid: 293 S.
Rothe, A., Brandt, S. and Hurler, R., 1999. Waldbewirtschaftung und Nitratbelastung des Grundwassers. AFZ/Der Wald, 10:531–533.
Rottmann, M., 1986: Wind- und Sturmschäden im Wald. Frankfurt.
Saaty, T.L., 1980: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw — Hill.
Schober, R., 1978: Ertragstafeln wichtiger Baumarten. Sauerländer’s Verlag.
Schütz, J.-Ph., 1994: Geschichtlicher Hergang und aktuelle Bedeutung der Plenterung in Europa. AFJZ 165 (5–6): 106–114.
Schwappach, A., 1890: Wachstum und Ertrag normaler Fichtenbestände. Julius Springer Verlag.
Sedjo, R.A., 1995: Ecosystem Management — an uncharted Path for Public Forests. Resources, (Resources for the Future) No. 121: 10–20.
Seydack, A.H.W., Vermeulen, W.J., Heyns, H.E., Durrheim, G.P., Vermeiden, C., Willems, D., Ferguson, M.A., Huisamen, J. and Roth, J, 1995: An unconventional approach to timber yield regulation for multi-aged, multi-species forests. II. Application to a South African forest. For. Ecol. & Mgmt 77: 155–168.
Shvidenko, A., Venevsky, S., Raille, G. and Nilsson, S., 1995: A system for evaluation of growth and mortality in Russian forests. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 82: 333–348.
Siitonen, M., 1983: A long term forestry planning system based on data from the Finnish national forest inventory. Univ. of Helsinki, Dept of For. Mens. & Mgmt Res. Note 17: 195–207.
Sprugel, D.G., 1991: Disturbance, Equilibrium, and Environmental Variability — what is Natural Vegetation in a Changing Environment. Biological Conserv. 58: 1–18.
Steinmeyer, A. and Gadow, K. v. 1994: Saaty’s AHP — dargestellt am Beispiel der Waldbiotopkartierung. Centralblatt f. d. ges. Forstwesen 112 (1): 53–65.
Sterba, H., 1990: Validitätsprüfung des Einzelbaumsimulators für Fichten-Kiefern-Mischbestände. Tagungsbericht. Dt. Verb. Forstl. Forschungsanstalten — Sektion Ertragskunde: 101–117.
Sturm, K., 1995: Möglichkeiten, Probleme und Defizite der Integration naturschutzrelevanter Daten im Rahmen der Forsteinrichtung. Schr. f. Landschaftspfl. u. Natursch. 43: 231–245.
Susmel, L., 1980: Normalizzazione delle foreste alpini — basi ecosistemiche — equilibrio — modelli colturali -produttivita. Liviane editrice, Padova 437 p.
Suzuki, T., 1971: Forest Transition as a Stochastic Process. Mitt. FBVA Wien. Heft 91: 137–150.
Szaro, R.C. and Johnston, D.W., 1996: Biodiversity in Managed Landscapes. Oxford University Press: 778 p.
Thomasius, H., 1988: Stabilität natürlicher und künstlicher Waldökosysteme sowie deren Beeinflußbarkeit durch forstliche Maßnahmen. AFZ No. 43: 1037–1043, 1064–1068.
Ulrich, B., 1987: Stabilität, Elastizität und Resilienz von Waldökosystemen unter dem Einfluß saurer Depositionen Forstarchiv 58: 232–239.
Ulrich, B., 1993:Prozeßhierarchie in Waldökosystemen. Biologie in Unserer Zeit 23 (5): 322–329.
United Nations, 1992: Internationally agreed glossary of basic terms related to desaster management. United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva.
Valsta, L.T., 1986: Mänty-rauduskoivusekametsikön hakkuuohjelman optimointi. Summary: Optimizing thinnings and rotation for mixed, even-aged pine-birch stands. Folia Forestalia 666. 23 S.
Virgilietti, P. and Buongiorno, J., 1997: Modelling forest growth with management data — a matrix approach for the Italian Alps. Silva Fennica 31 (1): 27–42.
Volz, K.-R., 1995: Zur ordnungspolitischen Diskussion über die nachhaltige Nutzung der Zentralressource Wald. Forst u.Holz 50 (6): 163–170.
Waggener, T.R., 1969: Some economic implications of sustained yield as a forest regulation model. Contribution No. 6, Univ. of Washington: 22 pp.
Waldherr, M., 1997: Risikoverluste und Erntealter. AFZ/Der Wald: 206–207.
Ware, G.O. and Clutter, J.L., 1971: A mathematical programming system for the management of industrial forests. For. Sci. 17: 428–445.
Weise, W., 1880: Ertragstafeln für die Kiefer. Julius Springer Verlag.
Wiedemann, E., 1949: Ertragstafeln der wichtigsten Holzarten. M.& H. Schaper, Hannover.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
von Gadow, K., Puumalainen, J. (2000). Scenario Planning for Sustainable Forest Management. In: von Gadow, K., Pukkala, T., Tomé, M. (eds) Sustainable Forest Management. Managing Forest Ecosystems, vol 1. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9819-9_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9819-9_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-0278-6
Online ISBN: 978-94-010-9819-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive