Business Opportunities for Space Transportation Companies in the Evolution of a Global Society

Abstract

Investments in space transportation companies (developers, providers, operators) are long-term undertakings. Therefore, the respective business plans have to take into account the long-term trends predicted by market research. According to the experts of leading think tanks, globalization is the most important fundamental trend. In answer to the question, “which trends will have the most important influence in the future?”, 83 percent of the leading German think tanks named either “globalization” or “world- wide networks”. The trend towards globalization is irreversible. This, in turn, will lead to a global society, which can be characterized as an intelligent, cybernetic system comparable to a living organism. The evolution of this system is characterized by the following attributes: (1) increasing world-wide interconnection by growing telecommunications networks, (2) rapid acceleration of economic processes, (31 increasing specialization of persons, enterprises, nations and economic regions, and (4) increasing interdependencies between specialized subsystems.

In this paper, the business opportunities in the space transportation market are derived from the characteristics (1) – (4) mentioned above. These opportunities are quantified, as far as possible. The paper starts out by describing the phenomenon of globalization. Next, the effects or the growing satellite-based telecommunications networks on the space transportation market are analyzed. After that, the relationships between world-wide networks, the acceleration of economic processes and the possibility to create a market for hypersonic business travel and transportation are presented. Due to the increasing specialization and the global interdependencies which result from it, the necessity for a comprehensive, “sensory”, satellite-based monitoring and reconnaissance system is discussed. The effects of this system on the space transportation market are examined. Next, the consequences of the expanded use of satellites and of increasing hypersonic travel and transportation for Earth-based astronomy and space research are described. Finally, a model of the future development of the space transportation market summarizes all points of discussion.