Abstract
The Williamsburg Conference on Urban Travel Demand Forecasting held in 1972 observed that:
“The confidence in that approach (conventional aggregate travel demand models) has been shaken and significant changes must be made to restore it” (Transportation Research Board Special Report 143, page 11)
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adler, T. J., Modelling Non-Work Travel Patterns, Ph. D. Thesis, Transportation Systems Division, Department of Civil Engineering, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1976.
Adler, T. J. and M. Ben-Akiva, “A Joint-Choice Model for Frequency, Destination and Travel Mode for Shopping Trips,” TRR 569, 1975.
Alan M. Voorhees and Associates, Inc. and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Auto Restricted Zones: Background and Visibility, Phase I Report, UMTA, 1976.
Antle, L. and R. Haynes, An Application of Discriminant Analysis to the Division of Traffic Between Transport Modes, Report 71–72, U.S. Army Eng. Institute for Water Resources, 1971.
Atherton, T. and M. Ben-Akiva, “Transferability and Updating of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models,” TRR 610, 1976.
Bain, J. H., Activity Choice Analysis, Time Allocation and Disaggregate Travel Demand Modelling, S. M. Thesis, Dept. of C.E., MIT, Cambridge, Mass., 1976.
Barton-Aschman Associates and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Los Angeles Central Business District: Internal Travel Demand Modelling, prepared for Community Redevelopment Agency, Los Angeles, California, 1976.
Ben-Akiva, M., Structure of Passenger Travel Demand Models, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of C.E., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1973.
Ben-Akiva, M., “Structure of Passenger Travel Demand Models,” TRR 526, 1974.
Ben-Akiva, M, T. J. Adler, J. Jacobson, M. Manheim, Experiments to Clarify Priorities in Urban Travel Forecasting Research and Development, Summary Report (draft), U.S. DOT, Feb. 1977.
Ben-Akiva, M. and T. Atherton, “Methodology for Short Range Travel Demand Predictions: Analysis of Carpooling Incentives,” in forthcoming Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 1977.
Ben-Akiva M. and S. Lerman, “Disaggregate Travel and Mobility Choice Models and Measures of Accessibility,” in forthcoming Proceedings of The 3rd Internat’l Conf. on Behavioural Travel Modelling, Australia, 1977.
Ben-Akiva, M., S. Lerman and M. Manheim, “Disaggregate Models: An Overview of Some Recent Research Results and Practical Applications,” Proceedings of the PTRC Summer Mtg., 1976.
Ben-Akiva, M. and M. Richards, “Disaggregate Multimodal Model for Work Trips in the Netherlands,” TRR 569, 1975.
Brand, D. and M. Manheim, eds., “Urban Travel Demand Forecasting,” HRB Special Report 143, 1973.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., The Development of a Disaggregate Behavioural Work Mode Choice Model for the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, prepared for the Los Angeles Regional Study and the Southern California Association of Governors, 1975.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., A Study Design for Dual Mode Transit Planning case Studies, prepared for UMTA, DOT, 1975.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Travel Model Development Project: Project Memos, Prepared for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Berkeley, Cal., 1977.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. and A. M. Voorhees and Associates, Inc., Carpool Incentives: Analysis of Transportation and Energy Impacts, Final Report, FEA, June 1976.
Charles River Associates, A Disaggregate Behavioural Model of Urban Travel Demand, prepared for the FHWA, U.S. DOT, 1972.
Cosslet, S., G. Duguay, W. S. Jung and D. McFadden, “Synthesis of Household Transportation Survey Data: The SYNS AM Methodology,” UTDFP Working Paper, Inst, of Transportation Studies, Univ. of Cal., Berkeley, 1977.
Creighton, Hamburg, Inc., Freeway-Surface Arterial Splitter, prepared for FHWA, U.S. DOT, July 1971.
Daganzo, C., F. Bouthelier and Y. Sheffi, “an Efficient Approach to Estimate and Predict with Multinomial Probit Models,” draft paper, Dept. of Civil Eng., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1976.
Daly, A. J., “Some Developments in Transport Demand Modelling,” Paper presented at the 3rd Internat’l Conf. on Behavioural Travel Modelling, Australia, 1977.
Dial, R. B., “A Procedure for Long Range Transportation (Sketch) Planning,” Proceedings of the Internat’l Conf. on Transportation Research, Transportation Research Forum, Bruges, Belgium June 1973.
Difiglo, C. and R. F. Reed, Jr., “Transit Sketch Planning Procedures,” TRR 569, 1975.
Duguay, G., W. Jung, and D. McFadden, “SYNSAM: A Methodology for Synthesizing Household Transportation Survey Data”, W.P. no. 7618, UTDFP, Inst, of Trans. Studies, U. of Cal., Berkeley, Sept. 1976.
Domencich, T. and D. McFadden, Urban Travel Demand: A Behavioural Analysis, North Holland, Amsterdam, 1975.
Dunbar, F. C., “Quick Policy Evaluation with Behavioural Demand Models,” Paper presented at 55th TRB Mtg., 1976.
Goodwin, P. B., “Travel Choice and Time Budgets,” prepared for the PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, University of Warwick, England, July 1976.
Hartwig, J. and W. Linton, Disaggregate Mode Choice Models of Intercity Freight Movement, S. M. Thesis, The Transp. Ctr., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, II., 1974.
Hausman, J. and D. Wise, “A Conditional Probit Model for Qualitive Choice: Discrete Decisions Recognizing Interdependence and Heterogeneous Preferences,” W.P. 173, Dept. of Econ., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1976.
Horowitz, J., “Effects of Travel Time and Cost on the Frequency and Structure of Automobile Travel,” TRR 592, 1976. Kanafani, A., E. Sadoulet and E. C. Sullivan, Demand Analysis for North Atlantic Air Travel, Special Report, The Institute of Transportation and Traffic Eng., University of California, Berkeley, April 1974.
Koppelman, F.S., Travel Prediction with Models of Individual Travel Behaviour, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of C.E., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1975.
Koppelman, F. S. and M. Ben-Akiva, “Aggregate forecasting with Disaggregate Travel Demand Models Using Normally Available Data,” prepared for presentation at the World Conf. on Transport Research, Rotterdam, Apr. 1977.
Landau, U., Sketch Planning Models in Transportation Systems, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of Civil Eng., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1976.
Lave, C. H., “A Behavioural Approach to Model Split Forecasting,” Transportation Research, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1969.
Lerman, S. R., A Disaggregate Behavioural Model of Urban Mobility Decisions, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of Civil Eng., MIT, Ma., 1975.
Lerman, S. R. and M. Ben-Akiva, “A Disaggregate Behavioral Modal of Auto Ownership,” TRR 569, 1975.
Liou, P. S., G. S. Cohen, and D. Hartgen, “Application of Disaggregate Modal-Choice Models of Travel Demand Forecasting for Urban Transit Systems,” TRR 534, 1975.
Lisco, T. E., The Value of Commuters’ Travel Time: A Study in Urban Transportation, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of Econ., Univ. of Chicago, 1967.
Luce, R. D. and P. Suppes, “Preference, Utility and Subjective Probability,” in Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. III, Luce, Bush, and Galanter (eds.), John Wiley, N.Y., 1965.
Manski, C. F., The Analysis of Qualitative Choice, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept of Econ., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., June 1973.
Manski, C., S. R. Lerman and R. L. Albright, Series of Technical Memos for ongoing project entitled “An Estimator for the Generalized Multinomial Probit Model,” Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 1977.
McFadden, D., “Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior,” in Zarembka, P. (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, N.Y. Academic Press, 1974.
McFadden, D., “The Mathematical Theory fo Demand Models,” in Behavioral Travel-Demand Models, (Stopher and Meyburg, eds.), Lexington Books, Lexington, Ma., 1976.
McFadden, Daniel, “Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behavior of Individuals: Some Recent Developments,” paper presented at the Third Internat’l Conf. on Behavior Travel Modelling, Australia, April 1977.
McFadden, D., W. Tye and K. Train, “Diagnostic Test for Independence-from-Irrelevant-Alternatives Property of Multinomial Logit Models,” Presented at the 56th Mtg. of the TRB, 1977.
McGillivray, R. G., “Binary Choice of Urban Transport Mode in the San Francisco Bay Region,” Econometrics, Vol. 40, No. 5, 1972.
Parody, T. E., A Disaggregate Prediction Analysis of Mode Choice, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of Civil Eng., Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, Ma., 1976.
Peat, Marwick and Mitchell & Co., Implementation of the n-Dimensional Logit Model, prepared for Comprehensive Planning Organization, San Diego County, Ca., 1973.
R. H. Pratt Associates, Inc., and DTM, Inc., Development and Calibration of Mode Choice Models for the Twin City Area, Prepared for the Metropolitan Council, 1976.
Richards, M., “Application of Disaggregate Modelling Techniques to Transportation Planning Studies,” Prepared for the PTRC Summer Annual Mtg., Univ. of Warwick, July 1975.
Richards, M. G. and M. Ben-Akiva, A Disaggregate Travel Demand Model, Saxon House, D. C. Health, Ltd., England, 1975.
Richards, M. and M. Ben-Akiva, “A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips,” Transportation, Vol. III, No. 4, Dec, 1974.
Roberts, P., “Forecasting Freight Flows Using a Disaggregate Freight Demand Model,” Ctr. for Trans. Studies, Report No. 76–1, MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1976.
Ruiter, E. R. and M. Ben-Akiva, “A System of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models: Structure, Component Models and Application Procedure,” Paper presented at 56th Mtg. of the TRB, 1977.
Small, K., “Bus Priority, Differential Pricing, and Investment in Urban HigHways,” W. P. no. 7613, UTDFP, Inst, of Trans. Studies, U. of Cal., Berkeley, 1976.
Spear, B. D., A Study of Individual Choice Models: Applications of New Travel Demand Forecasting Techniques to Transportation Planning, U.S. DOT, FHWA, Office of Highway Planning, 1977.
Talvitie, A. and N. Hilsen, “An Aggregate Access Supply Model,” Trans. Research Forum Proceedings, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1974.
Talvitie, A. and T. Leung, “Parametric Access Network Model,” TTR no. 592, 1976.
Terziev, M., Modelling the Demand for Freight Transportation, S. M. Thesis, MIT, Cambridge, Ma., 1976.
Train, K., “Work Trip Mode Split Models: An Empirical Exploration of Estimate Sensitivity to Model and Data Specification,” W. P. no. 7602, UTDFP, Inst, of transp. Studies, U. of Cal., Berkeley, 1976.
Urban Mass Transportation Administration, Urban Transportation Planning System: Reference Manual, Washington, D.C. 1976.
Warner, S. L., Stochastic Choice of Mode in Urban Travel: A Stduy in Binary Choice, Northwestern Univ. Press, Evanston, III, 1962.
Watanatada, T., Application of disaggregate Choice Models to Urban Transportation Sketch Planning, Ph. D. Thesis, Dept. of C.E., MIT, Cambridge, Ma., June 1977.
Watanatada, T. and M. Ben-Akiva, Development of an Aggregate Model of Urbanized Area Travel Behavior, Final Report, Prepared for U.S. DOT and the Fed. Highway Admin., July 1977.
Weiner, E., H. Kassoff and D. Gendell, “Multimodal Nat’l Urban Transportation Policy Planning Model,” HRR 458,1973.
Williams, H. C. W. L., “On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit,” Environment and Planning A, Vol. 9, pp. 285-344, 1977.
Zahavi, Y., Traveltime Budgets and Mobility in Urban Areas, Final Report, FHWA PL-8183, U.S. DOT, Washington, D.C, May 1974.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1977 The Netherlands Institute of Transport
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ben-Akiva, M. (1977). Passenger travel demand forecasting: applications of disaggregate models and directions for research. In: Visser, E.J. (eds) Transport decisions in an age of uncertainty. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-9707-3_30
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-9707-3_30
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-009-9709-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-009-9707-3
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive