An Integrated Forecasting Model: A Progress Report

Abstract

A model of the U.S. energy sector has been developed by the Systems Program of the Energy Analysis and Environment Division (EAE) of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) using sub-models provided by EAE’s Demand and Conservation Program and Supply Program. A network diagram of the energy sector is used to define the frequently complex links between the sub-models. A preliminary base case for 1975–2000 has been run, and the model is currently being calibrated to actual data for 1975 and is being compared with runs of other energy models. The model will ultimately provide information to the EPRI planning staff for use in constructing an R&D overview.

The authors thank Steve Barrager of Decision Focus, Inc., for his many substantive contributions and John solow of Stanford University for his very capable efforts as a research assistant to this project. The authors also thank the referee and editors for their helpful comments.