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Climate and circulation of the tropics pp 330–352Cite as

Climate Prediction

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Part of the book series: Atmospheric Sciences Library ((ATSL,volume 8))

Abstract

Climatic disasters of great magnitude are common in many tropical regions (Chapter 8), and they severely affect a range of human activities (Chapter 10). It is therefore not surprising that endeavors to forecast them well in advance extend over a century, and that both the world Climate Program (World Meteorological Organization, 1980, p. 42) and the U.S. National Climate Program (National Climate Program Office, NOAA, 1980, pp. 23–24) identify climate prediction as a major objective. Approaches can be grouped into five major categories: (i) the extrapolation of presumed periodicities, such as the sunspot cycle or other empirically determined time series characteristics; (ii) the assessment of statistical relationships between rainfall and pressure and other data at distant locations; (iii) the relation between rainfall in the pre-season and at the height of the rainy season; (iv) comprehensive diagnostic studies of climate and circulation anomalies combined with statistical methods; and anticipated for the future (v) numerical modelling.

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    Stefan Hastenrath

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Hastenrath, S. (1985). Climate Prediction. In: Climate and circulation of the tropics. Atmospheric Sciences Library, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-5388-8_9

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