Abstract
United States Government estimates of offshore oil resources have been based largely on subjective information. Through time, results of exploratory drilling become available, and the estimates are updated. Although this situation strongly suggests the use of Bayes’s Theorem, this approach has not been taken. In this paper, the problem is explicitly framed in terms of Bayes’s Theorem, and two simple exercises are performed on actual results to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach.
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© 1988 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
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Solow, A.R. (1988). On Assessing Dry Probabilities in Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration: An Application of Bayes’s Theorem. In: Chung, C.F., Fabbri, A.G., Sinding-Larsen, R. (eds) Quantitative Analysis of Mineral and Energy Resources. NATO ASI Series, vol 223. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4029-1_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4029-1_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8288-4
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