Abstract
The appeal of expected utility (EU) theory — the standard model of decision analysis — as a normative model is not necessatily lessened by its poor quality as a descriptive model. As a matter of fact, observations of systematic violations of EU in Allais [1], Kahneman and Tversky [7], Mac Crimmon and Larsson [15], Kunreuther [10], Schoemaker [17] and elsewhere have had no apparent effect on its popularity.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Allais, M. The foundations of a positive theory of choice involving risk and a criticism of the postulate and axioms of the American School (From 1952, French version). In M. Allais and Hagen (Eds). Expected utility hypotheses and the Allais paradox. D. Reidel, Dordrechtr, 1979, 27–145.
Cohen, M., Jaffray, J.Y. and Said, T. ‘Experimental Comparison of Individual Behavior under Risk and under Uncertainty for Gains and for Losses’, Theory and Decision, 18 (March 1985),203–228.
Farquhar, P. ‘Utility Assessment Methods’, Management Sci, 30 (November 1984) 1283–1300.
Hershey, J., Kunreuther, H. and Schoemaker, P. ‘Sources of Bias in Assessment Procedures for Utility Function’, Management Sci. 23 (August 1982), 936–953.
Hershey, J. and Schoemaker, P. ‘Probability versus Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement’, Management Sci 31 (October 1985), 1213–1231.
Jaffray, J.Y. ‘An Axiomatic Model of Choice Under Risk which is Compatible with the Certainty Effect’, Working Paper, Lab. d’Econométrie, Université PARIS 6, 1986. (A shortened version can be found in this book).
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. ‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk’, Econometrica, 4 (March 1979), 263–292.
Karmarkar, S. ‘Subjectively Weighted Utility: A Descriptive Extension of the Expected Utility Model’, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 21 (February 1978), 61–72.
] Krantz, D., Luce, R. Suppes, P. and Tversky, A. Foundations of Measurement, Vol. 1, Academic Press 1971, New York.
Kunreuther, H. ‘Limited Knowledge and Insurance Protection’. Public Policy, 24 (Spring 1976).
Kunreuther, H. and Schoemaker, P.J. ‘An Experimental Study of Insurance Decisions’, J. Risk Insurance. 46 (December 1979), 603–618.
Mc Cord, M.R., ‘Empirical Demonstration of Utility Dependence on the Fundamental Assessment Parameters’, Ph. D. Dissertation Department of Civil Engineering, MIT, Sept. 1983.
Mc Cord, M.R. and de Neufville, R. ‘Utility Dependence on Probability: An Empirical Demonstration’, Journal of Large Scale Systems, 6 (1984), 91–103.
Mc Cord, M.R. and de Neufville, R. ‘‘Lottery equivalents’: Reduction of the certainty effect problem in utility assessment’, Management Sci., Vol. 32, N° 1 (1986), 56–60.
Mc Crimmon, K.R. and Larsson, S. Utility theory: Axioms versus “Paradoxes”, In M. Aliais and D. Hagen (Eds). Expected utility hypotheses and the Aliáis paradox, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, 1979, 333–409.
Quiggin, J. ‘A Theory of Anticipated Utility’, J. of Economic Behavior and Organization, 3 (1982), 323–343.
Schoemaker, P.J. Experiments on decisions under risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis, Martinus Nijhoff Publishing, Boston, 1980.
Segal, U. ‘Nonlinear decision Weights with the Independence Axiom’, UCLA Working Paper # 353, Nov. 1984.
Wehrung, D.A., Mc Crimmon, K.R. and Brothers, K.M., ‘Utility Measures: Comparisons of Domains, Stability, and Equivalence Procedures’, Working Paper # 603, University of British Columbia.
Yaari, M. ‘Risk Aversion Without Diminishing Marginal Utility’. I C E R D Report Series in Theoretical Economics, London School of Economics, 1984.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1988 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Cohen, M., Jaffray, JY. (1988). Preponderence of the Certainty Effect Over Probability Distortion in Decision Making Under Risk. In: Munier, B.R. (eds) Risk, Decision and Rationality. Theory and Decision Library, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4019-2_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4019-2_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8283-9
Online ISBN: 978-94-009-4019-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive