Stochastic Thinking, Modes of Thought, and A Framework for the Process and Structure of Human Information Processing

Abstract

This quotation was originally formulated within proposals for a ten year key program on the psychology of knowledge (Wissenspsychologie) directed by the German science foundation (DFG). Yet the calls for, and the challenge of a qualitative, structural, and concept—driven modeling of cognitive processes also reveals the indispensible necessity for research into decision making under uncertainty or stochastic thinking. In the field of probability judgments, this necessity has been particularly highlighted by the research and findings on the ‘base — rate fallacy’ which have been described or developed in the previous chapters.

“The previous contributions have clarified that we cannot deal primarily with the question of quantitatively measuring knowledge, but more that we should record moments of the structural state of the knowledge process at a specific point in time and then compare points over time. The recording process must be guided by theories on the representation of knowledge.”

(MANDL, SPADA, ALBERT, DÖRNER, & MÖBUS, 1984, p. 34, our translation)