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Validation of General Circulation Climate Models

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Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASIC,volume 243))

Abstract

Future climatic conditions are likely to differ noticeably from those of today because of the effects of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. In order to have confidence in predictions of future climate, we must assess the reliability of the models used for prediction, that is, we must validate the models. Predictions at the regional and seasonal scale, which are central in estimating impacts of climatic change, can only be made using complex general circulation climate models. For such models, three types of validation may be distinguished: validation of the internal physics and subgrid-scale parameterizations of the models, validations against present climate with the model in the control-run mode, and validation against other climate states in the perturbed-run mode. Because of space limitations, this chapter concentrates on control run validation. Examples are given showing model performance in simulating mean sea level pressure over the Europe/North Atlantic/North America region. Sea-level pressure is used as an illustrative variable because of its fundamental role in describing the atmospheric circulation, its strong links with temperature and precipitation, and the excellent spatial and temporal coverage afforded by existing observations. Three models are considered, two with prescribed ocean surface boundary conditions and one with a fully interactive ocean. Problems in interpreting model errors are described and illustrated using the examples of simulated pressures over Greenland and the seasonal cycles of the latitude and intensity of the Iceland Low and Azores High. Model simulations of these features are generally poor. In cases where model and observed data are less obviously different, model performance must be judged using objective statistical techniques. The main parameters used in such tests are means and variances, but spatial pattern comparisons can also provide valuable information. Model/observed similarities can be tested using both univariate and multivariate tests. Methods currently in use, together with their practical problems, are described and discussed. Examples are given of the use of grid point by grid point t-tests for differences in means, and the use of spatial correlation coefficients for assessing the strength of spatial pattern similarities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, NR4 7TJ, Norwich, UK

    T. M. L. Wigley & B. D. Santer

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  1. T. M. L. Wigley
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  2. B. D. Santer
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA

    M. E. Schlesinger

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© 1988 Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Wigley, T.M.L., Santer, B.D. (1988). Validation of General Circulation Climate Models. In: Schlesinger, M.E. (eds) Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change. NATO ASI Series, vol 243. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3043-8_6

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-7868-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-3043-8

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