Discussion on the Lifespan of the Present Channel of the Lower Yellow River

Abstract

An estimate of the lifespan of the present channel is a strategic problem in harnessing the Lower River. The abandoned channel of the Yellow River in the Ming and Qing dynasties is the best basis for the estimation. The length of the extension of the river course at the estuary and the raising of the river bed elevation are two important parameters determining the possibility of a river avulsion. From the comparison between the conditions of the present and abandoned channels and consideration of the probable hydraulic works built on the Yellow River recently, it can be concluded that the present channel of the Lower Yellow River can be safely maintained for another 100 years. It is not necessary to change the river course artificially in the near future.