Abstract
Forecasting the supply of shopping centers is potentially important to developers, owners, property managers, lenders, appraisers, and other real estate professionals associated with the owning, operation, and financing of shopping centers. During the last decade, an oversupply of retail space has lowered rents, raised vacancies, and damaged the financial integrity of retail property owners and lender financial institutions. This chapter reviews two models — the Koyck distributed lag model and the investment model — that help to predict the creation of shopping center space. The models provide evidence about how the supply of new shopping space responds to changes in retail sales, in the cost of capital, and in local tax rates. Both models indicate that prolonged cycles exist in the construction of shopping space that could lead to the oversupply of retail space.
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References
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© 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Benjamin, J.D., Jud, G.D., Winkler, D.T. (1996). Forecasting Shopping Center Supply. In: Benjamin, J.D. (eds) Megatrends in Retail Real Estate. Research Issues in Real Estate, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1802-3_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1802-3_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-7303-5
Online ISBN: 978-94-009-1802-3
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