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Effects of a fall in the price of oil: the case of a small oil-exporting country

  • Kjeel Berger
  • Ådne Cappelen
  • Vidar Knudsen
  • Kjeel Roland
Part of the International Studies In Economic Modelling book series (ISIM)

Abstract

This chapter explores the macroeconomic effects on the Norwegian economy of a large fall in the price of oil. The chapter is a condensed version of a more voluminous report being published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (see Berger et al 1986). Our analysis is divided into three parts. In Section 21.2, we discuss some scenarios for the price of crude oil, using a world oil market model developed at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Oslo. A high price and a low price scenario are derived together with a number of alternatives according to different sets of assumptions. In Section 21.3 we review some studies of international macroeconomic repercussions of falling oil prices. Included here are results from a simulation that we have carried out on the LINK model system. Finally, in Section 21.4, building on the projected oil price paths and assumptions about international repercussions, we analyse the effects on the Norwegian economy of a lower price of oil. For this part we utilize MODAG A, a macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy also developed at the Central Bureau of Statistics

Keywords

Price Scenario Norwegian Krone High Price Elasticity Government Budget Balance Norwegian Economy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

  1. Berger, K, Cappelen, Ä., Knudsen, V. and Roland, K. (1986) Effects on the Norwegian economy of lower oil prices, report, Central Bureau of Statistics, Oslo.Google Scholar
  2. Cappelen, Ä. and Longva, S. (1986) MODAG A: a medium-term annual Macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy, in Nordic Macroeconomic Models (eds O. Bjerkholt and J. Rosted), Book Series On International Studies in Economic Modelling, Chapman and Hall, London.Google Scholar
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Copyright information

© Chapman and Hall Ltd 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kjeel Berger
  • Ådne Cappelen
  • Vidar Knudsen
  • Kjeel Roland

There are no affiliations available

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