Projections of the OECD economies in the global perspective, 1986-2000: policy simulations by the FUGI global macroeconomic model
This chapter makes projections of the OECD economies for the period 1986–2000, using the latest version of the FUGI global macroeconomic model, i.e. type IV 011–62, and giving due consideration to the complex international linkages which make for global interdependence. Directing attention to both (1) a baseline future scenario and (2) alternative policy mixes, the model forecasts that the real average economic growth rate of the OECD countries as a whole during 1986–2000 will likely be from around 2.8% (in the baseline projection) to 3.5% (with alternative policies), while the world economy will likely sustain annual growth rates of between 3.3% and 3.8% for the period.
KeywordsWorld Economy OECD Country Alternative Policy Military Expenditure Japanese Economy
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Bremer, Stuart A. (1985) The GLOBUS Model: History, Structure and Illustrative Results, Institute for Comparative Social Research (Wissenschaftszentrum), Steinplatz 2, D-1000 Berlin 12, May.Google Scholar
- Bruckman, Gerhart (ed.) (1980) FUGI: Future of global interdependence, in Proceedings of the Fifth II AS A Symposium on Global Modelling, September 26–28, 1977, reprinted in Input-Output, Approaches in Global Modelling, IIASA Proceedings Series 9, Pergamon Press, Oxford, pp. 91–360.Google Scholar
- Forrester, Jay W. (1971) World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
- Klein, Lawrence R., Pauly, Peter and Voisin, Pascal (1982) The world economy, a global model, in Perspectives in Computing, No. 2, IBM, Armonk, New York, pp. 4–17.Google Scholar
- Leontief, W. et al. (1977) The Future of the World Economy, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Meadows, D. H. et. al. (1972) Limits to Growth, Potomac Associates, Washington DC.Google Scholar
- Mesarovic, M. and Pestel, E. (1974) Multilevel Computer Model of World Development Systems, Vols 1–6, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.Google Scholar
- OECD (1979) Interfutures Facing the Future: Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable, Paris.Google Scholar
- Onishi, Akira (1985) North-south interdependence: projections of the world economy, 1985–2000. Journal of Policy Modelling, 7 (4), pp. 1–18.Google Scholar
- Onishi, Akira (1986) A Supplementary Report on the Global Early Warning System for Displaced Persons, United Nations University, Tokyo, January.Google Scholar