Policy Analysis

Abstract

Even faster than the depletion of the ozone layer the anticipated climate change has come to play a role in high level policy debates. Since the problem is very complex by nature a need has arisen among policy makers to have at their disposal a tool that gives a clear and concise overview of the workings of the greenhouse effect and the relevance of potential policy options. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) was developed at the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM in Dutch) from 1986, at a stage when the recognition of climate change was intended to be its primary role (Rotmans, 1989). Since the enhanced greenhouse effect is created by a multitude of effects, the model tries to capture these causes and effects in an integrated fashion. The main difficulty thwarting policy response to the greenhouse effect is that the causes are not only many; they also form the fundamental basis of our society: the present practices with respect to energy production and consumption, agriculture and industry. Dependent on the assumptions and definitions it can be generally said that the agricultural sector, including deforestation, causes 25% of the problem, while 75% is caused by the energy and industry sectors. Within the energy sector transportation, power generation and other combustion processes play about an equal role (see Figure 10.1).