Real-Time Forecasting: Model Structure and Data Resolution

  • Ian D. Cluckie
  • Pao-shan Yu
  • Kevin A. Tiford

Abstract

This paper introduces transfer function rainfall runoff models based on three different spatial structures: lumped, semi-distributed and grid-based fully distributed. All the models have been developed for use with radar derived estimated of rainfall, though raingauge data can also be used. The mathematical basis for each model structure is introduced and the underlying assumptions explained. The paper describes via case studies the application of each model structure to river catchments in the North-west and East of England - catchments which differ considerably in size and their physical characteristics. In addition to the spatial dimension, the intensity resolution of the rainfall data (a function of radar return signal quantisation) is considered as it pertains to flood forecasting with rainfall runoff models. A detailed analysis of high and low intensity resolution (eight and three-bit) radar rainfall data using spectral analysis techniques to study information content, and end-point use assessment of forecast quality shows the three-bit rainfall data to be sufficient for flood forecasting despite its lower intensity resolution. Exaplanations are provided by consideration of the nature of catchment processes, the information content of the rainfall data, and the mathematical characteristics of the rainfall runoff model. The implications of this for operational use of remotely sensed radar rainfall data are discussed.

Keywords

Rainfall Data Intensity Resolution Flood Forecast Rainfall Runoff Model Weather Radar 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Reference

  1. (1).
    Nemec, J., Hydrological Forecasting - Design and Operation of Hydrological Systems, 1986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. (2).
    Chatterton, J.B., Pirt, B.A., and Wood, T.R., “The Benefits of Flood Forecasting”, Jml of Inst, of Water and Env. Sci., Vol. 33, pp 237, 1979.Google Scholar
  3. (3).
    Noonan, G.A., “An Operational Flood Warning System”, Weather Radar and Flood Forecasting ed. by V.K. Collinge and C. Kirby, 1986.Google Scholar
  4. (4).
    Chander, S., and Shanker, H., “Unit Hydrograph Based Forecast Model”, Hyd. Sci. Jml, Vol. 31, pp 279, 1984.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. (5).
    Bobinski, E., and Mierkiewicz, M., “Recent Developments in Simple Adaptive Flow Forecasting Models in Poland”, Hyd. Sci. Jrnl, Vol. 31, pp297, 1986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. (6).
    Corradini, C., and Melone, F., “On the Structure of a Semi-Distributed Adaptive Model for Flood Forecasting”, Hyd. Sci. Jrnl, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp 227, 1987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. (7).
    Corradini, C., Melone, F., and Uvertini, “A Semi-Distributed Model for Real-Time Flood Forecasting”, Water Resource Bulletin, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp 1031, 1986.Google Scholar
  8. (8).
    O’Connell, P.E., and Clark, R.T., “Adaptive Hydrological Forecasting - A Review”, Hyd. Sci. Bulletin 26(2), pp 179, 1981.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. (9).
    Reed, D.W., “A Review of British Flood Forecasting Practice”, I.H. Report No. 90, pp42, 1984.Google Scholar
  10. (10).
    Harpin, R., “Real Time Flood Routing with Particular Emphasis on Linear Methods and Recursive Estimation Techniques”, Ph.D Thesis, University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, 1982.Google Scholar
  11. (11).
    Powell, S.M., “River Basin Models For Operational Forecasting of Flow in Real-Time”, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, 1985.Google Scholar
  12. (12).
    Owens, M.D., “Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Weather Radar Data”, Ph.D Thesis, University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, 1986.Google Scholar
  13. (13).
    Cluckie, I.D. and Ede, P.F., “End-Point Use a Criterion for Model Assessment”, 7th IFAC/IFORS Symposium on Identification and System Parameter Estimation York, U.K., 1985.Google Scholar
  14. (14).
    Snorrason, A., Newbold, P., and Maxwell, W.H.C., “Multiple Input Transfer Function Noise Modelling of River Flow”, Frontiers in Hydrology, ed. by Maxwell, W.H.C and Beard L.R, Water Resource Publication, Collins, 1984.Google Scholar
  15. (15).
    Olason, T., and Watt, W.E., “Multivariate Transfer Function-Noise Model of River How for Hydropower Operation”, Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 17, pp l85, 1986Google Scholar
  16. (16).
    Yu, P.S, “Real-Time Grid-Based Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model for Flood Forecasting with Weather Radar”, Ph.D Thesis, University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, 1989Google Scholar
  17. (17).
    Bauer, S.W., “A Modifed Horton Equation for Infiltration during Intermittent Rainfall”, Hydrological Science Bulletin, Vol 19, pp 219–225.Google Scholar
  18. (18).
    Boyd, M.J., “A Storage-Routing Model Relating Drainage Basin Hydrology and Geomorphology”, Water Resource Research 14(5), pp 921–928.Google Scholar
  19. (19).
    Young, P.C., “Real-Time River Flow Forecasting”, International Postgraduate Course, July 26-Aug. 6, 1983, Wageningan, Netherlands.Google Scholar
  20. (20).
    Cluckie, I.D., and Yu, P.S., “Stochastic Models for Real-Time Riverflow Forecasting Utilising Radar Data”, The 5th IAHR International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, University of Birmingham, U.K. Aug. 1989.Google Scholar
  21. (21).
    Anglian Radar Information Project., “Transfer Function Models for Flood Forecasting in Anglian Water Authority”, Report No. 3, 1989.Google Scholar
  22. (22).
    Anglian Radar Information Project., “An Evaluation of the Influence of Radar Rainfall Intensity Resolution for Real-Time Operational Flood Forecasting”, Report No. 2, 1988.Google Scholar
  23. (23).
    Cluckie, I.D., Tilford, K.A., and Shepherd, G.W., “Radar Rainfall Quantisation and it’s Influence on Rainfall Runoff Models”, Proc. Int. Symp. on Hyd. App. of Weather Radar, University of Salford, U.K, 1989.Google Scholar
  24. (24).
    Tilford, K.A., “Real-Time Flood Forecasting using Low Intensity Resolution Radar Rainfall Data”, M. Sc Thesis, University of Birmingham, Department of Civil Engineering, 1987.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© ECSC, EEC, EAEC, Brussels and Luxembourg 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ian D. Cluckie
    • 1
  • Pao-shan Yu
    • 1
  • Kevin A. Tiford
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of SalfordSalfordEngland, UK

Personalised recommendations