Watershed Risk Analysis Model for TVA’s Holston River Basin

Abstract

The Electric Power Research Institute has launched a research project to develop a conceptual risk analysis framework for watershed management of point and nonpoint source pollution. The research leads to the design of an engineering model to 1) process and translate water quality data (coliform, BOD, DO, suspended solids, temperature, sediment, etc.) into decision variables (suitability for water contact sports and swimming, fish spawning, fish survival, human consumption of fish, and freedom from algal nuisance, etc.) and 2) predict water quality improvements from proposed management alternatives. Actual development of the model is being carried out with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for the Holston River watershed. The effort includes model construction by importation of GIS map files, stringing together existing watershed and reservoir models, calibration of the model, and selection of decision variables and water quality check points. The model calculates hydrology, waste load, water quality and suitability of fish habitats at headwaters. The base case results and improvements after best management alternatives will be compared to the data observed by TVA’s River Action Team. The final product will be a user friendly tool that stakeholders can use to find a cost effective method of improving water quality, including market-based pollution trading.