Uncertainty analysis of a greenhouse effect model

  • Jerzy A. Filar
  • Radoslaw Zapert
Part of the Economics, Energy and Environment book series (ECGY, volume 5)


There are numerous mathematical models of many environmental phenomena and new ones are continually being constructed. These models, typically depend on a large number of parameters and are often able to reproduce historical trends of the quantities they represent. However, it would also be very useful to have a methodology for assessing the reliability of the models’ forecasts in terms of how fast they propagate errors. This would allow us to compare different models and, perhaps, select the one which magnifies errors at a slow rate. In this paper we deal with a model formulated as a dynamical system but we expect that conceptually similar approaches to the uncertainty analysis may be used in other classes of models.


Uncertainty Analysis Greenhouse Effect Usual Scenario System Noise Noise Parameter 
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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jerzy A. Filar
    • 1
  • Radoslaw Zapert
    • 2
  1. 1.School of MathematicsUniversity of South AustraliaThe Levels, AdelaideAustralia
  2. 2.Department of MathematicsUniversity of Maryland at Baltimore CountyBaltimoreUSA

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