Skip to main content

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Bangladesh: A Ricardian Approach

Abstract

The study measured the economic impacts of climate change on wheat production in Bangladesh using Ricardian approach. Panel data on wheat yield and climate variables were used to estimate the model. Results indicated that most climate variables had a significant impact on the income of wheat production. The marginal increase of temperature during January and February reduced the net revenue by Bangladeshi Taka (BTk) 18,885 ha−1 (USD 239.05) and BTk 9,603 ha−1 (USD 121.56) respectively, whereas, marginal increase of temperature during December increased it by BTk 7,045 ha−1 (USD 89.18). Increasing rainfall during December and January increases the net return by BTk 128 ha−1 (USD 1.62) and BTk 543 ha−1 (USD 6.87) respectively. The study used predictions from five different Global Circulation Models (GCM) for two IPCC emission scenarios and found that impacts on net revenues for these two scenarios are mixed depending on model predictions. Net revenue will decrease for both A2 and B2 emission scenarios using precipitation and temperature predictions for 2030 for three of the models, while it will increase for two models. At the same time, for 2050, net revenue will fall when temperature and precipitation of one of the models are used for the rest net revenue will rise. This means that while our study provided marginal effects for temperature and precipitation changes on farm’s net revenue, understanding about the climate change impact requires better climate modeling for the local situation. This is important to accurately predict the impact of climate change for future years.

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Impacts
  • Wheat
  • Bangladesh
  • Ricardian model

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7957-0_7
  • Chapter length: 12 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   99.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-94-007-7957-0
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)

Notes

  1. 1.

    In a competitive market, rents would be equal to the net revenue from the land.

  2. 2.

    In Recardian analysis for climate change, farmers are assumed to be rational economic agents and maximize their profits by using land in declining order of fertility because of change in climate and soil quality (Polsky 2003).

  3. 3.

    The same cross-sectional unit (say, a firm, state) is surveyed over time. In other words, pooling of time series and cross-sectional observations over time.

References

  • Adams RM (1989) Global climate change and agriculture: An economic perspective. Am J Agric Econ 71(5):1272–1279

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed SM, Meisner CA (1996) Wheat research and development in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Australia Wheat Improvement Project and CIMMYT_Bangladesh, Bangladesh, pp. 55

    Google Scholar 

  • BBS (2010) Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh, Ministry of Planning, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Google Scholar 

  • Boville BA, Gent PR (1998) The NCAR climate system model, Version One. J Climate (11):164–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Cline WR (1996) The impact of global warming on agriculture: Comment. The Am Econ Rev 86(5):1309–1312

    Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch U, Voss R, Hegerl J, Waskiewitz, Crowley T (1997) Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model. Climate Dyn 13:757–767

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Darwin R (1999) The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricaridan analsyis: Comment. The Am Econ Rev 89(4):1049–1052

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Derssa TT, Hassan RM (2009) Economic impact of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia: Evidence from cross-section measures. J African Econ 18(4):529–554

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Dinar A, Mendelsohn R, Evenson R, Parikh J, Sanghi A, Kumar K, McKinsey J, Lonergan S (1998) Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Technical Paper 402, World Bank, Washington, DC

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gbetibouo GA, Hassan RM (2005). Economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: A Ricardian approach. Glob Planet Change 47:143–152

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon C, Senior C, Banks H, Gregory I, Johns J, Mitchell J, Wood R (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents, and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn 16:147–168

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Helmy ME, Samia M, El-Marsafawy, Samiha AO (2007) Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian approach. Policy Research Working Paper # 4293, The World Bank, Development Research Group Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team, July 2007. Available at: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/

  • HIES (2010) Household income and expenditure survey. Ministry of Planning, Dhaka

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Special report on emissions scenarios. www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/ emission

  • Islam AKMS (2009) Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh due to global warming using historical data. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka

    Google Scholar 

  • Kabubo-Mariara J, Karanja FK (2007) The Economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. Glob Planet Change 57:319–330

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar K, Parikh S (1998) Climate change impacts on Indian agriculture: The Ricardian approach. In: Dinar, Mendelsohn A, Evenson R, Parikh R, Sanghi J, Kumar A, McKinsey K, Lonergan JS (eds) Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper No. 402, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KSK, Parikh J (2001) Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity. Glob Environ Change 11(2):147–154

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kurukulasuriya P, Ajwad MI (2007) Application of the Ricardian technique to estimate the impact of climate change on smallholder farming in Sri Lanka. Climatic Change 81:39–59

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Maddison D, Manley M, Kurukulasuriya P (2006) The impact of climate change on African agriculture—A Ricardian approach. CEEPA discussion paper 15, ISBN—1-920160-15–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe S, Stouffer J, Spelman MJ, Bryan K (1991) Transient responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2, Part I: Mean annual response. J Climate 4:785–818

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84:753–771

    Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D (1999) The impact of climate variation on US agriculture. In: Mendelsohn R, Neumann J (eds) The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Reinsborough M (2007) A Ricardian analysis of US and Canadian farmland. Climatic Change 81:9–17

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Min J, Yu W (2009) The impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh. World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC20433 wyu@worldbank.org; Robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakićenović N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, pp. 599

    Google Scholar 

  • Olsen JE, Bocher PK, Jensen T (2000) Comparison of scales of climate and soil data for aggregating simulated yields in winter wheat in Denmark. Agr Ecosys Env 82:213–228

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Parry M (1994) Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367:133–138

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Sanghi A, Mendelsohn R (1999) The impact of global warming on Brazilian and Indian agriculture. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Sciences. New Haven, CT

    Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha AB, Wake CP, Mayewski PA, Dibb JE (1999) Maximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 1971–1994. J Climate 12:2775–2787

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Tokioka T, Kenkyūjo KK, Kankyō C, Sentā K (1996) A Transient CO2 experiment with the MRI CGCM: Annual mean response. Volume 2 of CGER’s supercomputer monograph report. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Environment Agency of Japan, Ibaraki, pp. 86

    Google Scholar 

  • UNDP (2008) Impacts of climate change on human development. Human Development Report, 2007/2008

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The technical helps on many issues regarding wheat received from Dr. Md. Saifuzzaman, Chief Scientific Officer (Retired), Wheat Research Centre (WRC), Gazipur, Bangladesh; and Dr. Md. Ataur Rahman, Principal Scientific Officer, WRC, Gazipur are gratefully acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. A. Monayem Miah .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Miah, M., Haque, A., Hossain, S. (2014). Economic Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Productivity in Bangladesh: A Ricardian Approach. In: Behnassi, M., Shahid, S., Mintz-Habib, N. (eds) Science, Policy and Politics of Modern Agricultural System. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7957-0_7

Download citation