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Climate Change and United States Forests pp 25–54Cite as

Forest Processes

Part of the Advances in Global Change Research book series (AGLO,volume 57)

Abstract

During the twenty-first century, tree mortality from forest disturbances may switch the United States from a current carbon sink (offsetting 13 % of U.S. fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions) to a source. Carbon losses from disturbances in western U.S. forests (insects, wildfire) may be partially offset by increased growth in the East, where water is sufficient and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and N deposition promote tree growth. Habitat for some tree species will likely move northward and upward in elevation, and the movement of suitable habitat may be faster than species can disperse to the new habitats. Direct and indirect effects of climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle. The effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration will likely be less than ± 10 %, a relatively small change compared to the effects of precipitation variability on transpiration. More frequent droughts will probably reduce streamflow, and concentrating precipitation in intense storms will likely increase the risk of erosion and landslides. Tree mortality from disturbances will likely increase runoff, and decreased snow cover depth, duration, and extent will advance the timing of runoff. Some effects, like the response of mature trees to elevated CO2, are difficult to project because current empirical data and modeling are inadequate. The effects of climate change on forest ecosystems can be projected with some confidence at regional scales, although projecting changes at smaller spatial scales (e.g., watersheds) or for individual tree species will be challenging because of the complexity and variability of biophysical interactions at specific locations.

Keywords

  • Ecosystem Service
  • Suitable Habitat
  • Tree Mortality
  • Species Distribution Model
  • Storage Rate

These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Michael G. Ryan

  2. Southern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, USA

    James M. Vose & David N. Wear

  3. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA

    Paul J. Hanson

  4. Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OH, USA

    Louis R. Iverson

  5. Southern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Otto, NC, USA

    Chelcy F. Miniat

  6. Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Boise, ID, USA

    Charles H. Luce

  7. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    Lawrence E. Band

  8. National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Western Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Steven L. Klein

  9. Pacific Northwest Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Seattle, WA, USA

    Don McKenzie

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  9. Don McKenzie
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  10. David N. Wear
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Correspondence to James M. Vose .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Northwest Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Seattle, Washington, USA

    David L. Peterson

  2. Southern Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

    James M. Vose

  3. Research and Development, U. S. Forest Service, Arlington, Virginia, USA

    Toral Patel-Weynand

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Ryan, M.G. et al. (2014). Forest Processes. In: Peterson, D., Vose, J., Patel-Weynand, T. (eds) Climate Change and United States Forests. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 57. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7515-2_3

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