Abstract
This chapter addresses the intersection of migration and environmental trends in North America in the context of global environmental change, including a historical review of past migrations related to environmental events as well as a description of regional climate change forecasts and current migrations trends, a brief review of past environmental migration in the region, and an overview of recent research on population mobility and climate change events. The general conclusion is that environmental factors may not be the primary driver of migration for the region as a whole, but that climate change events will likely have a role at the local level. Also, being an area of international immigration, impacts in sending areas could lead to changes in current patterns.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsNotes
- 1.
In fact, one of the ironies of wildfires is that it is precisely in-migration and development in sensitive ecosystems that puts householders at risk (Westerling et~al. 2006).
- 2.
Migration systems include two or more places connected by flows and counterflows of people (Faist 2004, page 50). Moving beyond early push–pull models, this dynamic approach allows for the reciprocal effects, multiple causation, and rapid changes that characterize different and interconnected forms of population mobility at various temporal and spatial scales (Boyd 1989; Fawcett 1989; Kritz and Zlotnik 1992).
- 3.
A note on sources: the Unites States’ 2010 Census did not include questions on the foreign-born population. After 2000 data on the foreign born are available only through the American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey.
- 4.
Annual rate per 1,000 US population.
- 5.
Persons recognized as refugees under the 1951 UN Convention/1967 Protocol, the 1969 OAU Convention, in accordance with the UNHCR Statute, persons granted a complementary form of protection and those granted temporary protection (UNHCR 2012:46).
- 6.
Data on remittances is not available for Canada.
- 7.
Even 5 years after Katrina, in 2010, New Orleans’ population was just 343,829, a 29.1 % decline from 2000 (US Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22/2255000.html).
- 8.
The displacement risk index (DRI) combines measures of socioeconomic vulnerability, physical vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane return periods, and probability of strikes. The authors defined displacement as “the uprooting of people from their homes resulting from a hurricane disaster for periods of time that exceed the typical temporary shelter timeframe of 3 months”. Raw scores where converted to “a standard normal percentile rank where a percentile of 100 denotes maximum hurricane-related displacement risk for a county” (Esnard et~al. 2011:834, 849).
- 9.
“The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels” (IPCC 2000).
References
Adamo, S. B., & de Sherbinin, A. (2011). The impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of the population and on migration. In United Nations. Population Division (Ed.), Population distribution, urbanization, internal migration and development: An international perspective (pp. 161–195). New York: UN. Population Division.
Arenstam Gibbons, S. J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2006). Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA. Global Environmental Change, 16(1), 40–47.
Bakewell, O. (2011). Conceptualising displacement and migration: Processes, conditions, and categories. In K. Koser & S. Martin (Eds.), The migration-displacement nexus: Patterns, processes, and policies. Oxford: Berghahn Books.
Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R. (2011a). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478(7370), 447–49.
Black, R., Neil Adger, W., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011b). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21(Supplement 1(0)), S3–S11.
Blunden, J., & Arndt, D. S. (Eds.) (2012). State of the climate in 2011. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(7), S1–S264.
Boyd, M. (1989). Family and personal networks in international migration: Recent developments and new agendas. International Migration Review, 23(3), 638–670.
Bronen, R. (2011). Climate-induced community relocations: Creating an adaptative governance framework based in human rights doctrine. NYU Review of Law & Social Change, 35, 356–406.
Chen, Y., Irwin, E. G., & Jayaprakash, C. (2009). Dynamic modeling of environmental amenity-driven migration with ecological feedbacks. Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2498–2510.
Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Palmer, R. N. (2004). The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62(1), 337–363.
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., & Whetton, P. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, & H. L. Miller (Eds.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.
Curtis, K., & Schneider, A. (2011). Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: Estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise. Population and Environment, 33(1), 28–54.
Cutter, S. (2011). The Katrina exodus: Internal displacements and unequal outcomes. London, UK Government’s Foresight Project, Migration and Global Environmental Change. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/migration/case-studies/11-1156-cs1-katrina-exodus-internal-displacements.pdf
de Sherbinin, A., Castro, M., Gemenne, F., Cernea, M. M., Adamo, S., Fearnside, P. M., Krieger, G., Lahmani, S., Oliver-Smith, A., Pankhurst, A., Scudder, T., Singer, B., Tan, Y., Wannier, G., Boncour, P., Ehrhart, C., Hugo, G., Pandey, B., & Shi, G. (2011). Preparing for resettlement associated with climate change. Science, 334(6055), 456–457.
de Sherbinin, A., Levy, M., Adamo, S. B., MacManus, K., Yetman, G., Mara, V., Razafindrazay, L., Goodrich, B., Srebotnjak, T., Aichele, C., & Pistolesi, L. (2012). Migration and risk: Net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas. Environmental Research Letters 7(4):045602. http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=045602.
Donner, W., & Rodríguez, H. (2008). Population composition, migration and inequality: The influence of demographic changes on disaster risk and vulnerability. Social Forces, 87(2), 1089–1114.
Durand, J., & Massey, D. S. (2010). New world orders: Continuities and changes in Latin American migration. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 630, 20–52.
Emerson, J. W., Hsu, A., Levy, M. A., de Sherbinin, A., Mara, V., Esty, D. C., & Jaiteh, M. (2012). 2012 Environmental performance index and pilot trend environmental performance index. New Haven: Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy.
Esnard, A. M., Sapat, A., & Mitsova, D. (2011). An index of relative displacement risk to hurricanes. Natural Hazards, 59(2), 833–859.
Faist, T. (2004). The volume and dynamics of international migration and transnational social spaces. Oxford: Clarendon.
Fawcett, J. T. (1989). Networks, linkages and migration systems. International Migration Review, 23(3), 671–680.
Feng, S., Krueger, A. B., & Oppenheimer, M. (2010). Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(32), 14257–14262.
Feng, S., Oppenheimer, M., & Schlenker, W. (2012). Climate change, crop yields, and internal migration in the United States (NBER Working Paper).
Field, C. B., Mortsch, L. D., Brklacich, M., Forbes, D. L., Kovacs, P., Patz, J. A., Running, S. W., & Scott, M. J. (2007). North America. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 617–52). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., & Midgley, P. M. (Eds.). (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.
Findlay, A. M. (2011). Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21(Supplement 1(0)), S50–S58.
Frey, A. E., Olivera, F., Irish, J. L., Dunkin, L. M., Kaihatu, J. M., Ferreira, C. M., & Edge, B. L. (2010). The impact of climate change on hurricane flooding inundation, population affected, and property damages. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 46(5), 1049–1059.
Friesen, T. M. (2010). Dynamic Inuit social strategies in changing environments: A long-term perspective. Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography, 110(2), 215–225.
Fussell, E., Sastry, N., & VanLandingham, M. (2010). Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment, 31(1), 20–42.
German Advisory Council on Global Environmental Change (WBGU). (2007). Climate change as security risk. Berlin: WBGU.
Gilbert, G., & McLeman, R. (2010). Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: A case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s. Population and Environment, 32(1), 3–26.
Goldring, L., Berinstein, C., & Bernhard, J. (2009). Institutionalizing precarious migratory status in Canada. Citizenship Studies, 13(3), 239–265.
Gutmann, M., & Field, V. (2010). Katrina in historical context: Environment and migration in the U.S. Population and Environment, 31(1), 3–19.
Gutmann, M., Deane, G., Lauster, N., & Peri, A. (2005). Two population-environment regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Population and Environment, 27(2), 191–225.
Hamilton, L. C., & Butler, M. J. (2001). Outport adaptations: Social indicators through Newfoundland’s cod crisis. Human Ecology Review, 8(2), 1–11.
Higgins, J. (2008). Rural depopulation. Newfoundland/Labrador Heritage: Memorial University of Newfoundland.
IOM. (2010). World migration report 2010: The future of migration: Building capacities for change. Geneva: IOM.
IPCC. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios. Summary for policy makers. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
Karl, T. R., Melillo, J. M., & Peterson, T. C. (Eds.). (2009). Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kritz, M., & Zlotnik, H. (1992). Global interactions: Migration systems, processes and policies. In M. Kritz, L. Lin Lean, & H. Zlotnik (Eds.), International migration systems. A global approach (pp. 1–16). New York: Oxford University Press.
Kulcsár, L., & Bolender, B. (2011). If you build it, will they come? Biofuel plants and demographic trends in the Midwest. Population and Environment, 32(4), 318–331.
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A., & Reichler, T. (2007). Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805.
Magalhaes, L., Carrasco, C., & Gastaldo, D. (2010). Undocumented migrants in Canada: A scope literature review on health, access to services, and working conditions. Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health, 12, 132–151.
Marino, E. (2012). The long history of environmental migration: Assessing vulnerability construction and obstacles to successful relocation in Shishmaref, Alaska. Global Environmental Change, 22, 374–381.
Martin, S. (2009). Managing environmentally induced migration. In F. Laczko & C. Aghazarm (Eds.), Migration, environment and climate change: Assessing the evidence. Geneva: IOM.
Martin, S. (2010a). Climate change and international migration. Washington, DC: The German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Martin, S. (2010b). Climate change, migration and governance. Global Governance, 16, 397–414.
McGranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization, 19(1), 17–37.
McLeman, R. (2006). Migration out of 1930s rural eastern Oklahoma: Insights for climate change research. Great Plains Quarterly 26(1), 27–40.
McLeman, R. A., & Hunter, L. M. (2010). Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: Insights from analogues. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(3), 450–461.
McLeman, R., & Ploeger, S. (2012). Soil and its influence on rural drought migration: Insights from Depression-era Southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada. Population & Environment, 33(4), 304–333.
McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 76(1), 31–53.
McLeman, R., Mayo, D., Strebeck, E., & Smit, B. (2008). Drought adaptation in rural eastern Oklahoma in the 1930s: Lessons for climate change adaptation research. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 13(4), 379–400.
McLeman, R., Herold, S., Reljic, Z., Sawada, M., & McKenney, D. (2010). GIS-based modeling of drought and historical population change on the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Historical Geography, 36(1), 43–56.
Myers, C., Slack, T., & Singelmann, J. (2008). Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: The case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Population and Environment, 29, 271–291.
Oliver-Smith, A. (2009). Sea level rise and the vulnerability of coastal peoples: Responding to the local challenges of global climate change in the 21st century. InterSecTions, No. 7.
Orlove, B. (2005). Human adaptation to climate change: A review of three historical cases and some general perspectives. Environmental Science & Policy, 8, 589–600.
Pais, J. F., & Elliott, J. R. (2008). Places as recovery machines: Vulnerability and neighborhood change after major hurricanes. Social Forces, 86(4).
Passel, J., & Cohn, D. (2011). Unauthorized immigrant population: National and state trends, 2010. Washington, DC, Pew Research Center. http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/133.pdf.
Passel, J., Cohn, D., & Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2012). Net migration from Mexico falls to zero – and perhaps less. Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center.
Plyer, A., Bonaguro, J., & Hodges, K. (2010). Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster. Population and Environment, 31(1), 150–175.
Poston, D., Zhang, L., Gotcher, D., & Gu, Y. (2009). The effect of climate change on migration: United States, 1995–2000. Social Science Research, 38, 743–753.
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., & Silwal, A. (2011). Migration and remittances factbook 2011. Washington, DC, IBRD and World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/migration-and-remittances.
Reilly, M., & Hossain, Y. (2011). The impact of low-carbon policy on migration. In Foresight (Ed.), Migration and global environmental change. London: Government Office for Science UK.
Sastry, N. (2009). Displaced New Orleans residents in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Results from a pilot survey. Organization & Environment, 22(4), 395–409.
Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2011). The potential influence of climate change on migratory behaviour – A study of drought, Hurricanes and migration in Mexico. Doctoral thesis. Brighton: University of Sussex.
Schwartz Leighton, M., & Notini, J. (1994). Desertification and migration: Mexico and the United States. San Francisco: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.
Sharpe, A., Arsenault, J.-F., & Ershov, D. (2007). The impact of interprovincial migration on aggregate output and labour productivity in Canada, 1987–2006. Ontario: Center for the Study of Living Standards.
Shumway, J. M., & Otterstrom, S. M. (2001). Spatial patterns of migration and income change in the mountain west: The dominance of service-based, amenity-rich counties. The Professional Geographer, 53(4), 492–502.
Smith, S., & McCarty, C. (1996). Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of Hurricane Andrew. Demography, 33(2), 265–275.
Smith, S., & McCarty, C. (2009). Fleeing the storm(s): An examination of evacuation behavior during Florida’s 2004 hurricane season. Demography, 46(1), 127–145.
Statistics Canada. (2008). Report on the demographic situation in Canada. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
Stringfield, J. (2010). Higher ground: An exploratory analysis of characteristics affecting returning populations after Hurricane Katrina. Population and Environment, 31(1), 43–63.
Trenberth, K. (2012). Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change. Climatic Change, 115(2), 283–290.
Turner, N. J., & Clifton, H. (2009). “It’s so different today”: Climate change and indigenous lifeways in British Columbia, Canada. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 180–190.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (Undated). Recent climate change. Available at http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc_tempanom.html and http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentpsc_precipanom.html. Accessed 30 June 2012.
UNHCR. (2012). Global trends 2011. A year of crises. Geneva, UNHCR. http://www.unhcr.org/4fd6f87f9.html.
United States Census Bureau. (2011). Statistical abstract of the United States: 2012. Historical statistics. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau.
Walters, N., & Trevelyan, E. (2011). The newly arrived foreign born population of the United States: 2010. Washington, DC: United States Census Bureau.
Wang, J., & Zhang, X. (2008). Downscaling and projection of winter extreme daily precipitation over North America. Journal of Climate, 21(5), 923–937.
Weiss, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., & Cole, J. E. (2012, March). Warmer led to drier: Dissecting the 2011 drought in the southern U.S. Southwest Climate Outlook, 11(3), 3–4.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006). Warming and earlier Spring increase Western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313, 940–943.
World Bank. (2012). World Bank data: Global bilateral migration. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=global-bilateral-migration
Zaninetti, J.-M., & Colten, C. E. (2012). Shrinking New Orleans: Post-Katrina population adjustments. Urban Geography, 33(5), 675–699.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Adamo, S.B., de Sherbinin, A.M. (2014). Migration and Environmental Change in North America (USA and Canada). In: Piguet, E., Laczko, F. (eds) People on the Move in a Changing Climate. Global Migration Issues, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-6984-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-6985-4
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)