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Early Life Conditions and Rapid Demographic Changes in the Developing World pp 153–167Cite as

Tide, Trickle, or Flow

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Abstract

The topic of health determinants for older adults in the developing world, in particular early life determinants, is one of considerable interest and has been recognized as important for public health. The preceding chapters set out with the ambitious task of examining a contrarian and therefore somewhat controversial conjecture regarding the unique cohorts born in the 1930s–1960sthat experienced rapid improvements in life expectancy primarily because of public health interventions including medical technology but mostly in the context of stagnant economic conditions. This occurred primarily in low- and middle-income countries. If exposure to poor nutrition and infectious diseases is an important predictor of health at older ages, these unique cohorts may be more susceptible to disease as they age. Of particular interest are those born in the tip of the iceberg countries in the late 1920s through the early 1940s who have already reached the age of at least 60 years. They now live in the areas of the world which are projected to be part of the rising tide of older adults with chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes which, in some instances, may originate in early life. These cohorts may shed light on the merit of the conjecture and what lies ahead.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Kinsella and He (2009), National Institute on Aging and US Department of State (2007), and National Research Council (2001).

  2. 2.

    Murray and Lopez (1996).

  3. 3.

    Barker (1998).

  4. 4.

    Kuh and Ben-Shlomo (2004).

  5. 5.

    Palloni, McEniry, Dávila, and García Gurucharri (2005).

  6. 6.

    Fogel (2004).

  7. 7.

    Barker (1998).

  8. 8.

    Popkin, Horton, and Kim (2001).

  9. 9.

    Scrimshaw (1968, 1997).

  10. 10.

    Barker (1998), Finch and Crimmins (2004), and Elo and Preston (1992).

  11. 11.

    Bateson et al. (2004).

  12. 12.

    Popkin (2006), Murray et al. (2012), Lim et al. (2012), and Basu, Yoffe, Hills, Lustig, and Wagner (2013).

  13. 13.

    Elo and Preston (1992), Barker (1995, 2001, 2005), Barker, Eriksson, Forsen, and Osmond (2002), and Barker, Forsén, Uutela, Osmond, and Eriksson (2001).

  14. 14.

    Barker (1995, 2001, 2005) and Barker et al. (2001, 2002).

  15. 15.

    De Schutter (2012).

  16. 16.

    For example, exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals may be a factor in explaining the recent epidemic in obesity in the developed world (WHO & UNEP, 2013).

  17. 17.

    Almond and Currie (2010).

  18. 18.

    Almond and Currie (2010).

  19. 19.

    See for example, Clark (1930).

  20. 20.

    De Schutter (2012).

  21. 21.

    Yan et al. (2012).

  22. 22.

    Waterland (2006).

  23. 23.

    Almond et al. (2009).

  24. 24.

    See for example Franko, O’Connor, and Morton (2009).

  25. 25.

    For example, WHO (2006).

  26. 26.

    Murray et al. (2012) and Lim et al. (2012).

  27. 27.

    Floud, Fogel, Harris, and Chul Hong (2011).

  28. 28.

    Crimmins, Preston, and Cohen (2010) and Woolf and Aron (2013).

  29. 29.

    See for example Popkin et al. (2001).

  30. 30.

    See for example, Deaton (2007) and Soares (2007).

  31. 31.

    Mehrotra and Jolly (1997).

  32. 32.

    Bishop, Corbin, and Duncan (1997) and West India Royal Commission Report (1945).

  33. 33.

    Garnier, Grynspan, Hidalgo, Monge, and Trejos (1997).

  34. 34.

    Akachi and Canning (2010), and Hult, Tornhammar, et al. (2010).

  35. 35.

    See, for example, the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) at www.charls.ccer.edu.cn/zh-CN and the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) at www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/LASI/about.html

  36. 36.

    Crimmins, Kim, and Vasunilashorn (2010).

  37. 37.

    Brenes (2008), Gurven et al. (2009), and Yan et al. (2012).

  38. 38.

    See for example Almond et al. (2009).

  39. 39.

    National Research Council (2001).

  40. 40.

    See for example Noel, Newby, Ordova, and Tucker (2009) and Tucker, Mattei, Noel et al. (2010).

  41. 41.

    Kim and Crimmins (2013).

  42. 42.

    Preston (1976).

  43. 43.

    Harper, Lynch, and Davey Smith (2011).

  44. 44.

    Barrientos (1997), De Vos and Palloni (2001), Klinsberg (2000), Mesa-Lago (1994), and Palloni (2002).

  45. 45.

    Black et al. (2008) and Victora et al. (2008).

  46. 46.

    Murray et al. (2012), Lim et al. (2012), and Yan et al. (2012).

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  1. Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Mary McEniry

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McEniry, M. (2014). Tide, Trickle, or Flow. In: Early Life Conditions and Rapid Demographic Changes in the Developing World. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6979-3_6

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