Tide, Trickle, or Flow

  • Mary McEniry


The topic of health determinants for older adults in the developing world, in particular early life determinants, is one of considerable interest and has been recognized as important for public health. The preceding chapters set out with the ambitious task of examining a contrarian and therefore somewhat controversial conjecture regarding the unique cohorts born in the 1930s–1960sthat experienced rapid improvements in life expectancy primarily because of public health interventions including medical technology but mostly in the context of stagnant economic conditions. This occurred primarily in low- and middle-income countries. If exposure to poor nutrition and infectious diseases is an important predictor of health at older ages, these unique cohorts may be more susceptible to disease as they age. Of particular interest are those born in the tip of the iceberg countries in the late 1920s through the early 1940s who have already reached the age of at least 60 years. They now live in the areas of the world which are projected to be part of the rising tide of older adults with chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes which, in some instances, may originate in early life. These cohorts may shed light on the merit of the conjecture and what lies ahead.


Early Life Adult Mortality Poor Nutrition Adult Health Medical Innovation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Deaton, A. (2007). Global patterns of income and health: Facts, interpretations, and policies. WIDER Annual Lecture, 10.Google Scholar
  2. Akachi, Y., & Canning, D. (2010). Health trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: Conflicting evidence from infant mortality rates and adult heights. Economics and Human Biology, 8, 273–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Almond, D., Bleakly, H., Ferrie, J., Mazumder, B., Rolf, K., & Troesken, W. (2009, March 12–13). Healthy, wealthy, and wise? Physical, economic, & cognitive effects of early life conditions on later life outcomes in the US: 1915–2005. Presented at the National Poverty Center’s conference on the Long-run Impact of Early Life Events II, Ann Arbor, MI.Google Scholar
  4. Almond, D., & Currie, J. (2010). Human capital development before age five (Working Paper No. 15827). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
  5. Barker, D. J. P. (1995). Fetal origins of coronary heart disease. British Medical Journal, 311, 171–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Barker, D. J. P. (1998). Mothers, babies and health in later life (2nd ed.). Edinburgh, Scotland: Churchill Livingstone.Google Scholar
  7. Barker, D. J. P. (2001). The malnourished baby and infant. British Medical Bulletin, 60, 69–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Barker, D. J. P. (2005). The developmental origins of coronary heart disease. In M. Marmot & P. Elliott (Eds.), Coronary heart disease epidemiology: From aetiology to public health (pp. 547–567). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Barker, D. J. P., Eriksson, J. G., Forsen, T., & Osmond, C. (2002). Fetal origins of adult disease: Strength of effects and biological basis. International Journal of Epidemiology, 31, 1235–1239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Barker, D. J. P., Forsén, T., Uutela, A., Osmond, C., & Eriksson, J. G. (2001). Size at birth and resilience to effects of poor living conditions in adult life: Longitudinal study. British Medical Journal, 323, 1273–1277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Barrientos, A. (1997). The changing face of pensions in Latin America: Design and prospects of individual capitalization pension plans. Social Policy & Administration, 31(4), 336–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Basu, S., Yoffe, P., Hills, N., & Lustig, R. H., with Wagner, B. (Ed.). (2013). The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: An econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e57873. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057873
  13. Bateson, P., Barker, D., Clutton-Brock, T., Deb, D., D’Udine, B., Foley, R. A., et al. (2004). Developmental plasticity and human health. Nature, 430, 419–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Bishop, M. D., Corbin, R., & Duncan, N. (1997). Barbados: Social development in a small island state. In S. Mehrotra & R. Jolly (Eds.), Development with a human face: Experiences in social achievement and economic growth (pp. 323–354). Oxford, UK: Clarendon.Google Scholar
  15. Black, R. E., Allen, L. H., Bhutta, Z. A., Caulfield, L. E., de Onis, M., Ezzati, M., et al. (2008). Maternal and child undernutrition: Global and regional exposures and health consequences. Lancet, 371, 243–260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Brenes, G. (2008). The effect of early life events on the burden of diabetes mellitus among Costa Rican elderly: Estimates and projections. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI.Google Scholar
  17. Clark, V. S. (1930). Porto Rico and its problems. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
  18. Crimmins, E., Kim, J. K., & Vasunilashorn, S. (2010). New approaches to understanding trends and differences in population health and mortality. Demography, 47(Suppl), S41–S64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Crimmins, E. M., Preston, S. H., & Cohen, B. (2010). International differences in mortality at older ages. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.Google Scholar
  20. De Schutter, O. (2012). The right to an adequate diet: The agriculture-food-health nexus. Report presented at the 19th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council.Google Scholar
  21. De Vos, S., & Palloni, A. (2001). Living arrangements of elderly people around the World. Living arrangements of older persons around the world. Unpublished manuscript prepared for 2005 United Nations publication.Google Scholar
  22. Elo, I. T., & Preston, S. H. (1992). Effects of early-life conditions on adult mortality: A review. Population Index, 58(2), 186–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Finch, C. E., & Crimmins, E. M. (2004). Inflammatory exposure and historical changes in human life-spans. Science, 305, 1736–1739.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Floud, R., Fogel, R. W., Harris, B., & Chul Hong, S. (2011). The changing body: Health, nutrition, and human development in the western world since 1700. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Fogel, R. (2004). The escape from hunger and premature death, 1700–2100: Europe, America and the third world. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Franko, K. L., O’Connor, K. C., & Morton, S. M. B. (2009). The economics of developmental origins of health and disease: Modeling the benefit of a healthy start to life. In M. Ross (Ed.), The economics of developmental origins of health and disease (pp. 21–28). Basel, Switzerland: Karger.Google Scholar
  27. Garnier, L., Grynspan, R., Hidalgo, R., Monge, G., & Trejos, J. D. (1997). Costa Rica: Social development and heterodox adjustment. In S. Mehrotra & R. Jolly (Eds.), Development with a human face: Experiences in social achievement and economic growth (pp. 355–383). Oxford, UK: Clarendon.Google Scholar
  28. Gurven, M., Kaplan, H., Winking, J., Rodríguez, D. E., Vasunilashorn, S., Kim, J. K., et al. (2009). Inflammation and infection do not promote arterial aging and cardiovascular disease risk factors among lean horticulturalists. PloS One, 4(8), e6590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Harper, S., Lynch, J., & Davey Smith, G. (2011). Social determinants and the decline of cardiovascular diseases: Understanding the links. Annual Review of Public Health, 32, 39–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Hult, M., Tornhammar, P., Ueda, P., Chima, C., & Edstedt Bonamy, A.-K. (2010). Hypertension, diabetes and overweight: Looming legacies of the Biafran famine. Pediatric Research, Suppl 1, 8–9.Google Scholar
  31. Kim, J. K., & Crimmins, E. M. (2013, August 26–31). Cross-country comparison of changes in health in US, England, Mexico, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Paper to be presented at the XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference, Busan, Republic of Korea.Google Scholar
  32. Kinsella, K., & He, W. (2009). An aging world: 2008 (US Census Bureau, International Population Reports, P95/09-1). Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
  33. Klinsberg, B. (2000). América Latina: una región en riesgo, pobreza, inequidad e institucionalidad social [Latin America: A region in risk, poverty, inequity, and social institutionalism]. Washington, DC: InterAmerican Development Bank.Google Scholar
  34. Kuh, D., & Ben-Shlomo, Y. (Eds.). (2004). A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  35. Lim, S. S., Vos, T., Flaxman, A. D., Danaei, G., Shibuya, K., Adair-Rohani, H., et al. (2012). A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010. The Lancet, 380(9859), 2224–2260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Mehrotra, S., & Jolly, R. (Eds.). (1997). Development with a human face: Experiences in social achievement and economic growth. Oxford, UK: Clarendon.Google Scholar
  37. Mesa-Lago, C. (1994). Changing social security in Latin America: Toward alleviating the costs of economic reform. Boulder, CO/London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc.Google Scholar
  38. Murray, C. J. L., Ezzati, M., Flaxman, A. D., Lim, S., Lozano, R., Michaud, C., et al. (2012). GBD 2010: A multi-investigator collaboration for global comparative descriptive epidemiology. The Lancet, 380(9859), 2055–2058.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Murray, C. J. L., & López, A. D. (Eds.). (1996). Global health statistics: Global burden of disease and injury series (Vol. 2). Boston: Harvard School of Public Health.Google Scholar
  40. National Institute on Aging & US Department of State. (2007). Why population aging matters: A global perspective. Washington, DC: National Institute on Aging.Google Scholar
  41. National Research Council. (2001). Preparing for an aging world: The case for cross-national research. Panel on a Research Agenda and New Data for an Aging World, Committee on Population and Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  42. Palloni, A. (2002). Living arrangements of older persons [Special Issue]. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, 42(43), 54–110.Google Scholar
  43. Palloni, A., McEniry, M., Dávila, A. L., & García Gurucharri, A. (2005). The influence of early conditions on health status among elderly Puerto Ricans. Social Biology, 52(3/4), 132–164.Google Scholar
  44. Popkin, B. M. (2006). Global nutrition dynamics: The world is shifting rapidly toward a diet linked with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 84, 289–298.Google Scholar
  45. Popkin, B. M., Horton, S., & Kim, S. (2001). The nutritional transition and diet-related chronic diseases in Asia: Implications for prevention (Food Consumption and Nutrition Division Discussion Paper No. 105). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.Google Scholar
  46. Preston, S. (1976). Mortality patterns in national populations with special reference to recorded causes of death. New York: Academic.Google Scholar
  47. Scrimshaw, N. S. (1968). Interaction of nutrition and infection. New York: World Health Organization.Google Scholar
  48. Scrimshaw, N. S. (1997). Nutrition and health from womb to tomb. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 18(1), 1–19.Google Scholar
  49. Soares, R. R. (2007). On the determinants of mortality reductions in the developing world. Population and Development Review, 33(2), 247–287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Victora, C. G., Adair, L., Fall, C., Hallal, P. C., Martorell, R., Richter, L., et al. (2008). Maternal and child undernutrition: Consequences for adult health and human capital. Lancet, 371, 340–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Noel, S. E., Newby, P. K., Ordova, J. M., & Tucker, K. L. (2009). A Traditional Rice and Beans Pattern is Associated with Metabolic Syndrome in Puerto Rican Older Adults. The Journal of Nutrition, 139, 1360–1367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Tucker, K. L., Mattei, J., Noel, S. E., Collado, B. M., Mendez, J., Nelson, J., et al. (2010). The Boston Puerto Rican health study, a longitudinal cohort study on health disparities in Puerto Rican adults: Challenges and opportunities. BMC Public Health, 10, 107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Waterland, R. A. (2006). Critical experiments to determine if early nutritional influences on epigenetic mechanisms cause metabolic imprinting in humans. In M. E. Wintour & J. A. Owens (Eds.), Early life origins of health and disease (pp. 195–203). New York: Springer Science + Business Media.Google Scholar
  54. West India Royal Commission. (1945). West India Royal Commission report. London: His Majesty’s Stationery Office.Google Scholar
  55. Woolf, S. H., & Aron, L. (Eds.). (2013). US health in international perspective: Shorter lives, poorer health. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.Google Scholar
  56. World Health Organization (WHO). (2006). Promoting optimal fetal development: Report of a technical consultation. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO.Google Scholar
  57. World Health Organization (WHO), & United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2013). State of the science of endocrine disrupting chemicals – 2012. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO Press.Google Scholar
  58. Yan, S., Li, J., Li, S., Zhang, B., Du, S., Gordon-Larsen, P., et al. (2012). The expanding burden of cardiometabolic risk in China: The China health and nutrition survey. Obesity Reviews, 13(9), 810–821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mary McEniry
    • 1
  1. 1.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research Institute for Social ResearchUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborUSA

Personalised recommendations