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Prediction from Weeks to Decades

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Abstract

This white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature on monthly to decadal climate prediction. The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. In terms of the scientific basis we described the various sources of predictability, e.g., the Madden Jullian Ocillation (MJO); Sudden Stratospheric Warmings; Annular Modes; El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); Atlantic “Niño;” Atlantic gradient pattern; snow cover anomalies, soil moisture anomalies; sea-ice anomalies; Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV); Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability (AMV); trend among others. Some of the outstanding challenges include how to evaluate and validate prediction systems, how to improve models and prediction systems (e.g., observations, data assimilation systems, ensemble strategies), the development of seamless prediction systems.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Arbitrarily small initial condition errors.

  2. 2.

    Here we define the prediction of climate anomalies as the prediction of statistics of weather (i.e., mean temperature or precipitation, variance, probability of extremes such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, high winds …).

  3. 3.

    In some of the literature a “prediction” corresponds to an initial value problem and the “projection” corresponds to a boundary forced problem. Here we recognize that decadal prediction and even seasonal prediction is a both an initial value and a boundary value problem. Throughout the text we refer to the combined initial value and boundary value problem as prediction problem.

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Acknowledgements

This manuscript was greatly improved by the comments and suggestions made by Julia Slingo. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for helpful comment on improving the manuscript. Ben Kirtman was supported by NOAA grants NA10OAR4320143 and NA10OAR4310203. Adam Scaife and Doug Smith were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra MetOffice Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    Ben Kirtman

  2. The IDR Group, Lamb Chambers, the Chambers of John Cherry QC, Lamb Building, Elm Court, Temple, London, EC4Y 7AS, UK

    David Anderson

  3. Meteorological Research Division (MRD)/ASTD, Environment Canada, 2121, Voie de Service nord, Route, Trans-Canadienne, Dorval, QC, Canada, H9P 1J3

    Gilbert Brunet

  4. Atmospheric Science Program, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Soul National University, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 151-742, Korea

    In-Sik Kang

  5. Met Office, Hadley Center, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

    Adam A. Scaife & Doug Smith

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  1. Ben Kirtman
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  3. Gilbert Brunet
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  4. In-Sik Kang
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  5. Adam A. Scaife
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  6. Doug Smith
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Correspondence to Ben Kirtman .

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  1. World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, bis, Avenue de la Paix 7, Geneva 2, 1211, Switzerland

    Ghassem R. Asrar

  2. Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Center Green Drive 3090, Boulder, 80301, Colorado, USA

    James W. Hurrell

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Kirtman, B., Anderson, D., Brunet, G., Kang, IS., Scaife, A.A., Smith, D. (2013). Prediction from Weeks to Decades. In: Asrar, G., Hurrell, J. (eds) Climate Science for Serving Society. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_8

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