Advertisement

Migration and Climate Change: Toward an Integrated Assessment of Sensitivity

  • Richard Black
  • Dominic Kniveton
  • Kerstin Schmidt-Verkerk
Chapter

Abstract

This chapter sets out a new approach to understanding the relationship between migration and climate change. Based on the understanding that migration is a significant, growing, but also complex phenomenon, this approach seeks to address the sensitivity of existing migration drivers in specific contexts to climate change. In contrast to existing approaches which have sought to generate global-level estimates of the numbers of ‘climate migrants’, this integrated assessment approach seeks instead to understand how and why existing flows from and to specific locations may change in the future, and provide a practical tool for climate adaptation planning. Examples of the application of this approach are provided for Ghana and Bangladesh.

Keywords

Assessment  Integrated  Bangladesh  Ghana  Migration drivers Sensitivity 

References

  1. Action Aid International. (2007). Unjust waters: Climate change, flooding and the protection of poor urban communities: experiences from six African cities. Johannesburg: Action Aid International.Google Scholar
  2. Adam, D. (2009, June 26) Gordon Brown puts $100bn price tag on climate adaptation. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/26/gordon-brown-climate-adaptation-cost.
  3. Afsar, R. (2003, June). Internal migration and the development nexus: The case of Bangladesh. Paper presented at the Regional Conference on Migration, Development and Pro-Poor Policy Choices in Asia. Dhaka, Bangladesh: University of Dhaka, Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) and UK Department for International Development (DFID).Google Scholar
  4. Afsar, R., & Baker, J. (1999). Interaction between rural areas and rural towns: Background paper on prerequisites of future Swedish support to rural towns development and poverty alleviation. Kristiansand: Agder Research Foundation.Google Scholar
  5. Anarfi, J., Kwankye, S., Ababio, O. M., & Tiemoko, R. (2003). Migration from and to Ghana: A background paper. Working Paper No. C4. Brighton, UK: Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty.Google Scholar
  6. Arango, J. (2004). Theories of international migration. In D. Joly (Ed.), International migration in the new millennium: Global movement and settlement (pp. 15–35). Aldershot: Ashgate.Google Scholar
  7. Arnell, N. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1), 31–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Barbieri, A. F., Domingues, E., Queiroz, B. L., Ruiz, R. M., Rigotti, J. I., Carvalho, J. A. M., et al. (2010). Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: Scenarios for 2025–2050. Population and Environment, 31(5), 344–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Barkat, A., & Akhter, S. (2003). Urbanisation and internal migration in Bangladesh: The onset of massive ‘slumisation’. In C. H. Abrar & M. P. Lama (Eds.), Displaced within homelands: The IDPs of Bangladesh and the region (pp. 125–148). Dhaka: University of Dhaka, RMMRU.Google Scholar
  10. Bateman, M. J., Meeraus, A., Newbery, D. M., Okyere, A. W., & O’Mara, G. T. (1990). Ghana’s cocoa pricing policy. Working paper, Agricultural and Rural Development Department. Washington, D.C., US: The World Bank.Google Scholar
  11. Beauchemin, C. (2011). Rural-urban migration in West Africa: Towards a reversal? Migration trends and economic situation in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. Population, Space and Place, 17(1), 47–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Black, R., Ammassari, S., Mouillesseaux, S., & Rajkotia, R. (2004). Migration and pro-poor policy in West Africa. Working paper no. C8. Brighton, UK: Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty.Google Scholar
  13. Black, R., Kniveton, D. & Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2011). Migration and climate change: Towards an integrated assessment of sensitivity. E&P A, 43(2), 431–450.Google Scholar
  14. Boyle, P., Halfracree, K., & Robinson, V. (1998). Exploring contemporary migration. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited.Google Scholar
  15. Bump, M. (2006). Country profiles Ghana: Searching for opportunities at home and abroad. Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from http://www.migrationinformation.org/Resources/.
  16. Castles, S. (2000, May). Migration as a factor in social transformation in East Asia. Paper presented at the Princeton University Conference on Migration and Development, Princeton, New Jersey, US.Google Scholar
  17. Castles, S., & Miller, M. J. (1993). The age of migration: International population movements in the modern world. Basingstoke: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  18. Christian Aid. (2007). Human tide: the real migration crisis—A Christian Aid report London. UK: Christian Aid.Google Scholar
  19. Conisbee, M., & Simms, A. (2003). Environmental refugees: The case for recognition London. UK: New Economics Foundation.Google Scholar
  20. Datta, P. (2004). Push-pull factors of undocumented migration from Bangladesh to West Bengal: A perception study. The Qualitative Report 9(2), 335–358. Retrieved from http://www.nova.edu/ssss/QR/QR9-2/datta.pdf.
  21. De Haan, A. (2000). Migrants, livelihoods, and rights: The relevance of migration in development policies. Social Development Working Paper No. 4. London, UK: DFID.Google Scholar
  22. DeJong, G. F., & Fawcett, J. (1981). Multidisciplinary frameworks and models of migration decision making. In G. F. De Jong & R. W. Gardner (Eds.), Migration decision making: Multidisciplinary approaches to micro level studies in developed and developing countries (pp. 13–58). New York: Pergamon Press.Google Scholar
  23. Elliott, J. R., & Pais, J. (2006). Race, class, and hurricane Katrina: Social differences in human responses to disaster. Social Science Research, 35(2), 295–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Environmental Protection Agency. (2000). Initial national communication for the UNFCCC. Accra, Ghana: Government of the Republic of Ghana. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ghanc1.pdf.
  25. Feng, S., Krueger, A. B., & Oppenheimer, M. (2010). Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(32), doi  10.1073/pnas.1002632107.
  26. Findley, S. E. (1994). Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3), 539–553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Gemenne, F. (2009). Géopolitique du changement climatique. Paris: Armand Colin.Google Scholar
  28. Halliday, T. (2006). Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(4), 893–925.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Haug, R. (2002). Forced migration, processes of return and livelihood construction among pastoralists in northern Sudan. Disasters, 26(1), 70–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Henry, S., Schoumaker, B., & Beauchemin, C. (2004). The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population and Environment, 25(5), 423–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hernández-Coss, R., & Bun, C. E. (2007). The UK-Nigeria remittance corridor: Challenges of embracing formal transfer systems in a dual financial environment. Working Paper No. 92. Washington, D.C., US: The World Bank.Google Scholar
  32. Hossain, M., Khan, I. A., & Seeley, J. (2003, April). Surviving on their feet: Charting the mobile livelihoods of the poor in rural Bangladesh. Paper prepared for the University of Manchester conference ‘Staying poor: Chronic poverty and development policy’. Manchester, UK.Google Scholar
  33. House of Commons. (2008). Sustainable development in a changing climate: Fifth report of Session 2008–09. London: International Development Committee, House of Commons.Google Scholar
  34. Hunter, L. (2005). Migration and environmental hazards. Population and Environment, 26(4), 273–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Integrated Regional Information News [IRIN]. (2007, Oct 18). Bangladesh: Flood migrants pour into Dhaka. Retrieved from http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=74846.
  36. Joarder, M. A. M., & Hasanuzzaman, S. (2008). Migration decision from Bangladesh: Permanent versus temporary. Asia Europe Journal, 6(3–4), 531–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Kniveton, D., Schmidt-Verkerk, K., Smith, C., & Black, R. (2008). Climate change and migration: Improving methodologies to estimate flows. IOM Migration Research Series Paper No. 33. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organisation for Migration (IOM).Google Scholar
  38. Kritz, M. M., Lim, L. L., & Zlotnik, H. (Eds.). (1992). International migration systems: A global approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  39. Kuuzegh, R. S. (2007). Ghana’s experience at integrating change adaptation into national planning. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/nsds/egm_ClimateChange/ghana.pdf.
  40. Laczko, F., & Aghazarm, C. (2009). Introduction and overview: Enhancing the knowledge base. In F. Laczko & C. Aghazarm (Eds.), Migration, environment and climate change: Assessing the evidence (pp. 7–40). Geneva: IOM.Google Scholar
  41. Landry, C. E., Bin, O., Hindsley, P., Whitehead, J. C., & Wilson, K. (2007). Going home: Evacuation-migration decisions of hurricane Katrina survivors. Center for Natural Hazards Research Working Paper. Retrieved from http://www.ecu.edu/hazards/pdfs/working_papers/Landry_etal.pdf.
  42. Marquette, C. M., Korantang, K. A., Overa, R., & Aryeetey, E. B. D. (2002). Small-scale fisheries, population dynamics, and resource use in Africa: The case of Moree Ghana. Journal of the Human Environment, 31(4), 324–336.Google Scholar
  43. Martin, S. F. (2009). Managing environmentally induced migration. In F, Laczko & C. Aghazarm (Eds.), Migration, environment and climate change: Assessing the evidence (pp. 353–384). Geneva, Switzerland: IOM.Google Scholar
  44. Massey, D., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431–466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. McGuffie, K., & Henderson-Sellers, A. (2005). A climate modelling primer. Chichester: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. McLeman, R. (2006). Migration out of 1930s rural Eastern Oklahoma: Insights for climate change research. Great Plains Quarterly, 26(1), 27–40.Google Scholar
  47. Meze-Hausken, E. (2004). Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 5(4), 379–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Mirza, M. M. Q. (2002). Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Global Environmental Change, 12(2), 127–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Munshi, K. (2003). Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the U.S. labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(2), 549–599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Myers, N., & Kent, J. (1995). Environmental exodus, an emergent crisis in the global arena. Washington, D.C: Climate Institute.Google Scholar
  51. Naik, A. (2009). Migration and natural disasters. In F. Laczko & C. Aghazarm (Eds.), Migration, environment and climate change: Assessing the evidence (pp. 245–318). Geneva: IOM.Google Scholar
  52. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., et al. (Eds.). (2000). Emissions scenarios: A special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  53. Otiso, K. M., & Owusu, G. (2008). Comparative urbanization in Ghana and Kenya in time and space. GeoJournal, 71(2), 143–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.). (2007). Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  55. Paul, B. K. (2005). Evidence against disaster-induced migration: The 2004 tornado in north-central Bangladesh. Disasters, 29(4), 370–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Portes, A. (1997). Immigration theory for a new century: Some problems and opportunities. International Migration Review, 31(4), 799–825.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Primavera, C. (2005). Rural-rural migration in Ghana: The effects of out-migration on the sustainability of agriculture in the Upper West Region Ghana. Master Thesis, University of Amsterdam. Retrieved from http://geest.socsci.uva.nl/phd/MA_thesis_primavera.pdf.
  58. Quartey, P. (2009). Migration in Ghana—A country profile 2009. Geneva, Switzerland: IOM. Retrieved from http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/Ghana_Profile_2009.pdf.
  59. Rahman, A., & Alam, M. (2003). Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in least developed countries (LDC). Working Paper No. 2: Bangladesh country study. London, UK: International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).Google Scholar
  60. Rahman, A. A., Alam, M., Alam, S. S., Uzzaman, M. S., Rashid, M., & Rabbani, G. (2007). Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh. Background paper commissioned for the 2007–2008 Human Development Report. New York, US: UNDP.Google Scholar
  61. Rahman, H. Z., Hossain, M. & Sen, B. (1996). Dynamics of rural poverty in Bangladesh. Dhaka: Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.Google Scholar
  62. Rain, D. (1999). Eaters of the dry season. Oxford: Westview Press.Google Scholar
  63. Rayhan, Md. I. (2008). Assessing household vulnerability and coping strategies to floods: A comparative study of flooded and non-flooded areas in Bangladesh. Göttingen: Cuvillier Verlag.Google Scholar
  64. Renaud, F., Bogardi, J. J., Dun, O., & Warner, K. (2007). Control, adapt or flee—How to face environmental migration?, InterSecTions (5th ed.). Bonn: United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS).Google Scholar
  65. Reuveny, R. (2008). Ecomigration and violent conflict: Case studies and public policy implications. Human Ecology, 35(1), 1–13. doi: 10.1007/s10745-9142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. RMMRU. (2007). Coping with river bank erosion induced displacement. Policy Brief. Dhaka: University of Dhaka, RMMRU. Retrieved from http://www.rmmru.org.
  67. Roberts, J. T., & Parks, B. C. (2007). A climate of injustice: Global inequality, North-South politics and climate policy. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  68. Shaman, J., Cane, M., & Kaplan, A. (2005). The relationship between Tibetan snow depth, ENSO, river discharge and the monsoons of Bangladesh. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26(17), 3735–3748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Shamshad, R. (2008, July). Politics and origin of the India-Bangladesh border fence. Paper presented at the 17th Biennial Conference of the Asian Studies Association of Australia, Melbourne.Google Scholar
  70. Siddiqui, T. (2003, June). Migration as a livelihood strategy of the poor: The Bangladesh case. Paper presented at the Regional Conference on Migration, Development and Pro-Poor Policy Choices in Asia, Dhaka, Bangladesh: University of Dhaka, RMMRU and DFID.Google Scholar
  71. Skeldon, R. (2002). Migration and poverty. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 17(4), 67–82.Google Scholar
  72. Smith, S. K., & McCarty, C. (1996). Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of hurricane Andrew. Demography, 33(2), 265–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Alley, R. B., Berntsen, T., Bindoff, N. L., et al. (2007). Technical summary: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, NY and Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  74. Speare, A., Jr. (1974). Residential satisfaction as an intervening variable in residential mobility. Demography, 11(2), 173–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: The stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  76. Tacoli, C. (2009). Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility. Environment and Urbanization, 21(2), 513–525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Toufique, K. A. (2002). Agricultural and nonagricultural livelihoods in rural Bangladesh: A relationship in flux. In Toufique, K. A. & Turlon, C. (Eds.) Hands not land: How livelihoods are changing in rural Bangladesh. Dhaka and London: Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and DFID.Google Scholar
  78. UN-HABITAT. (2007). Country activities and statistical overview. Retrieved from http://www.unhabitat.org/categories.asp?catid=2.
  79. United Nations Development Programme [UNDP]. (2009). Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development—Human development report 2009. New York: UNDP.Google Scholar
  80. United Nations Environmental Programme [UNEP]. (2007). Sudan—Post-conflict environmental assessment. Nairobi: UNEP.Google Scholar
  81. Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., & Chai-Onn, T. (2009). In search of shelterMapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. UNU-EHS, CARE International, CIESIN, UNHCR, World Bank. Retrieved from http://www.ehs.unu.edu/file/get/4170.
  82. Wolpert, J. (1966). Migration as an adjustment to environmental stress Journal of Social Issues, 22(4), 92–102.Google Scholar
  83. Wood, W. (2001). Ecomigration: Linkages between environmental change and migration. In A. Zolberg & P. Benda (Eds.), Global migrants, global refugees: Problems and solutions (pp. 42–61). New York: Berghahn Books.Google Scholar
  84. Zaman, M. Q. (1991). The displaced poor and resettlement policies in Bangladesh. Disasters, 15(2), 117–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Zolberg, A. (1989). The next waves: Migration theory for a changing world. International Migration Review, 23(3), 403–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Richard Black
    • 1
  • Dominic Kniveton
    • 2
  • Kerstin Schmidt-Verkerk
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Geography, School of Global StudiesUniversity of SussexFalmerGreat Britain
  2. 2.University of SussexBrightonUK
  3. 3.Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean (ROLAC)International Council for Science (ICSU)MexicoMexico

Personalised recommendations