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Global Demand for Paper Products: 2006–2050

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The Evolution of Global Paper Industry 1800¬–2050

Part of the book series: World Forests ((WFSE,volume 17))

Abstract

Our aim is to formulate and present global demand forecasts for several paper products for the main regions of the world for the period 2005-2050. Our forecasts, while based on standard regression modeling, differ from existing ones in that they are based not only on historical observed consumption patterns and projections of economic growth, but also take into account changes in the demographic constitution of countries and regions, and incorporate the assumption that beyond certain level economic prosperity (here in terms of GDP per capita) does not translate into increased demand for paper products. Our key results are threefold. First, the demand for paperboard and hygiene products will continue to grow globally relative to that for printing papers. Second, overall demand growth will be most prominent in Asia, Africa, South America and Eastern Europe, whereas Western Europe and North America will exhibit slowly growing or even declining demand. And third, certain demographic changes, such as population ageing in Western Europe and North America, and continuing urbanization in Asia and Africa may result in unanticipated yet appreciable qualitative changes in future paper products consumption.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Although we do not use product prices as predictors of paper and board demand, the results of the model concur closely with the predictions of demand for paper and board products in European countries until the year 2020 as presented in FAO (2005).

  2. 2.

    Thus, we calculate forecasts separately for every country based on the regression model introduced above.

  3. 3.

    A table of the country groupings is available from the authors on request. The same applies to the values of estimated elasticities.

  4. 4.

    The variants are (1) low fertility, (2) high fertility, (3) medium fertility and (4) constant fertility. The main difference between the scenarios is how many babies a woman, on average, has during her lifetime in a country and how this number changes over time (see UN (2006) for a more detailed description of the assumptions for each variant).

  5. 5.

    Japan, Australia, New Zealand and all countries in Europe and Northern America.

  6. 6.

    Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Samoa, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tuvalu, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Vanuatu, Yemen and Zambia.

  7. 7.

    All countries not included in the two other categories.

  8. 8.

    See Appendix for further details on the demand figures for the considered regions and product groups.

  9. 9.

    We gratefully acknowledge the comment and idea by Kimmo Alajoutsijärvi.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

    Joonas Järvinen

  2. Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, 35, FI-40014, Jyväskylä, Finland

    Juha-Antti Lamberg

  3. Industrial Engineering and Management, Tampere University of Technology, Tampere, Finland

    Tomi Nokelainen

  4. School of Economics, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

    Henrikki Tikkanen

Authors
  1. Joonas Järvinen
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  2. Juha-Antti Lamberg
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  3. Tomi Nokelainen
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  4. Henrikki Tikkanen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Joonas Järvinen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, Jyväskylä, 40014, Finland

    Juha-Antti Lamberg

  2. , Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, Jyväskylä, 40014, Finland

    Jari Ojala

  3. Aalto University School of Science, P.O. Box 11000, Aalto, 00076, Finland

    Mirva Peltoniemi

  4. , Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, Jyväskylä, 40014, Finland

    Timo Särkkä

Appendix

Appendix

Table 12.14 Demand forecasts for major paper and board product types in the ten considered regions, 2005–2050
Full size table

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Järvinen, J., Lamberg, JA., Nokelainen, T., Tikkanen, H. (2012). Global Demand for Paper Products: 2006–2050. In: Lamberg, JA., Ojala, J., Peltoniemi, M., Särkkä, T. (eds) The Evolution of Global Paper Industry 1800¬–2050. World Forests, vol 17. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5431-7_12

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