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A Spatial Analysis of Methamphetamine Lab Seizures in the Midwest High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Before and After Federal Precursor Legislation

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Book cover Crime Modeling and Mapping Using Geospatial Technologies

Part of the book series: Geotechnologies and the Environment ((GEOTECH,volume 8))

Abstract

This chapter uses spatial zero-inflated negative binomial regression to assess the relationship between methamphetamine lab seizures and county characteristics in the states of the Midwest High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area for the years 2000–2010. I regressed meth lab seizure statistics from the El Paso Intelligence Center with county characteristics obtained from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Two models were run to determine if the significant covariates for meth lab seizures changed as a result of the National Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act of 2005, which restricted precursor sales nationwide. The study does not find a significant difference in the covariates of the two models. In both cases, the most significant predictor of the presence of any meth lab in a county was their presence in neighboring counties, suggesting the agglomeration of methamphetamine production. In the count portion of the models, lab seizures were closely correlated with counties that were highly white but possessed the other characteristics associated with social disorganization.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The average annual number of labs seized per county between the years 2000 and the year 2005 was 3.14, and for 2007 through 2010 it was 1.59.

  2. 2.

    Rather than sample all of Illinois, only Rock Island County was included, as it is the only Illinois county in the Midwest HIDTA.

  3. 3.

    Because the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act was not fully implemented until September 2006, my post-precursor law analysis begins with 2007. For the sake of covering the same time span between the two samples, peak years were cut at 2003.

  4. 4.

    No study exists on the typical methamphetamine cook.

  5. 5.

    Unfortunately, the county level data for rural populations from the 2010 Census will not be ­available until October of 2012, so the percent of a county’s population that is rural could not be used as our rural indicator.

  6. 6.

    2010 education attainment variables had to be obtained from the 5-year estimates of the American Community Survey after the long-form questionnaire was eliminated for the 2010 census. Economic data for 2010 variables are from the 2009 economic census.

  7. 7.

    This value is calculated using the formula (100* (e −1.523904– 1)) where −1.523904 is the coefficient for the lagged variable (Atkins and Gallop 2007).

  8. 8.

    This value is calculated by multiplying the percentage change (calculated in the same manner explained in the previous footnote) by the mean of the dependent variable for the data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA

    Aaron H. Gilbreath

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  1. Aaron H. Gilbreath
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Correspondence to Aaron H. Gilbreath .

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  1. , Department of Geography & Anthropology, Louisiana State University, E104 Howe-Russell Geoscience Bldg., Baton Rouge, 70803, USA

    Michael Leitner

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Gilbreath, A.H. (2013). A Spatial Analysis of Methamphetamine Lab Seizures in the Midwest High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Before and After Federal Precursor Legislation. In: Leitner, M. (eds) Crime Modeling and Mapping Using Geospatial Technologies. Geotechnologies and the Environment, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4997-9_13

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