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Climate Changes in Siberia

  • Pavel Ya. Groisman
  • Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk
  • Alexander V. Chernokulsky
  • Maksim M. Arzhanov
  • Luca Belelli Marchesini
  • Esfir G. Bogdanova
  • Irena I. Borzenkova
  • Olga N. Bulygina
  • Andrey A. Karpenko
  • Lyudmila V. Karpenko
  • Richard W. Knight
  • Vyacheslav Ch. Khon
  • Georgiy N. Korovin
  • Anna V. Meshcherskaya
  • Igor I. Mokhov
  • Elena I. Parfenova
  • Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev
  • Nina A. Speranskaya
  • Nadezhda M. Tchebakova
  • Natalia N. Vygodskaya
Chapter
Part of the Springer Environmental Science and Engineering book series (SPRINGERENVIRON)

Abstract

This chapter provides observational evidence of climatic variations in Siberia for three time scales: during the past 10,000 years, during the past millennium prior to instrumental observations, and for the past 130 years during the period of large-scale meteorological observations. The observational evidence is appended with the global climate model projections for the twenty-first century based on the most probable scenarios of the future dynamics of the major anthropogenic and natural factors responsible for contemporary climatic changes. Historically, climate of Siberia varied broadly. It was both warmer and colder than the present. However, during the past century, it became much warmer; the cold season precipitation north of 55°N increased, but no rainfall increase over most of Siberia has occurred. This led to drier summer conditions and to increased possibility of droughts and fire weather. Projections of the future climate indicate the further temperature increases, more in the cold season and less in the warm season, significant changes in the hydrological cycle in Central and southern Siberia (summer dryness), ecosystems’ shifts, and changes in the permafrost distribution and stability. Observed and projected frequencies of various extreme events have increased recently and are projected to further increase. While in the north of Siberia, contemporary models predict warmer winters at the end of the twenty-first century and paleoreconstructions hint to warmer summers compared to the present warming observed during the period of instrumental observations. These three groups of estimates are broadly consistent with each other.

Keywords

Diurnal Temperature Range Snow Water Equivalent Southern Taiga Fire Danger Fire Weather 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pavel Ya. Groisman
    • 1
    • 2
  • Tatiana A. Blyakharchuk
    • 3
  • Alexander V. Chernokulsky
    • 4
  • Maksim M. Arzhanov
    • 4
  • Luca Belelli Marchesini
    • 5
  • Esfir G. Bogdanova
    • 6
  • Irena I. Borzenkova
    • 2
  • Olga N. Bulygina
    • 7
  • Andrey A. Karpenko
    • 4
  • Lyudmila V. Karpenko
    • 8
  • Richard W. Knight
    • 9
  • Vyacheslav Ch. Khon
    • 4
  • Georgiy N. Korovin
    • 10
  • Anna V. Meshcherskaya
    • 6
  • Igor I. Mokhov
    • 4
  • Elena I. Parfenova
    • 8
  • Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev
    • 7
  • Nina A. Speranskaya
    • 2
  • Nadezhda M. Tchebakova
    • 8
  • Natalia N. Vygodskaya
    • 11
  1. 1.NOAA National Climatic Data CenterAshevilleUSA
  2. 2.State Hydrological InstituteSt. PetersburgRussian Federation
  3. 3.Tomsk State UniversityTomskRussian Federation
  4. 4.A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussian Federation
  5. 5.Forest Ecology LaboratoryUniversity of TusciaViterboItaly
  6. 6.Voeikov Main Geophysical ObservatorySt. PetersburgRussian Federation
  7. 7.Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre (RIHMI-WDC)ObninskRussian Federation
  8. 8.V.N. Sukachev Institute of ForestSiberian Branch of Russian Academy of SciencesKrasnoyarsk AkademgorodokRussian Federation
  9. 9.North Carolina State UniversityRaleighUSA
  10. 10.Center for Problems of Forest Ecology and ProductivityMoscowRussian Federation
  11. 11.A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and EvolutionRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussian Federation

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