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Methods of Projecting Future Changes in Extremes

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Extremes in a Changing Climate

Part of the book series: Water Science and Technology Library ((WSTL,volume 65))

Abstract

This chapter examines some selected methods of projecting changes in extreme weather and climate statistics. Indices of extreme temperature and precipitation provide measures of moderately rare weather events that are straightforward to calculate. Drought indices provide measures of both agricultural and hydrological drought that are especially suitable for constructing multi-model ensemble projections of future change. Extreme value statistical theories are surveyed and provide methodologies for projecting the changes in frequency and severity of very rare temperature and precipitation events.

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Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling and the Earth System Modeling Programs of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department of Energy Office of Science under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231.

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Correspondence to Michael Wehner .

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Wehner, M. (2013). Methods of Projecting Future Changes in Extremes. In: AghaKouchak, A., Easterling, D., Hsu, K., Schubert, S., Sorooshian, S. (eds) Extremes in a Changing Climate. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 65. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4479-0_8

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