Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies – Examples from the European Alps

Abstract

There is no doubt, the world’s climate is changing. But, as soon as we are interested in the impacts at a special location and a certain time in future uncertainties grow tremendously. Concerning meteorological parameters affected by climate change IPCC already uses verbal phrases to describe uncertainties (IPCC 2007). The highest degree of certainty (“virtually certain”), and therefore the most reliable proof of climate change can be found for the temperature increase. The uncertainty for other climate components is much higher. Simple physically based assumptions seem to be able to describe further effects (e.g. warmer temperature – increased water vapour – increased precipitation – more floods). But the climate system is more complex. Concerning the impact on increasing Alpine natural hazards such as flood or debris-flow magnitudes and frequencies there is no clear and direct relation at the first glance. For the Danube River in Austria it was found out that there is an upward trend for floods. But, a deeper insight shows that “small floods” are responsible for this trend. It is more likely that – beside other reasons – river regulation measures for flood protection and hydropower use lead to a channelization of the river and a reduction of retention areas, which result in a reduced flow time (Blöschl and Merz 2008).