Advertisement

A Silent Revolution

  • Donald T. Rowland
Chapter
Part of the International Perspectives on Aging book series (Int. Perspect. Aging, volume 3)

Abstract

Part I of the book (Chaps. 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) is concerned with developments at the societal level. Chapter 1 (A Silent Revolution) introduces the emerging revolution in national age structures and the main demographic theories that have provided starting points for interpreting population aging and its consequences. The first half of the chapter shows that current trends in population aging are transforming contemporary societies in contrasting ways. While population aging and growth in the numbers of older people are becoming universal, countries differ in the pace of change and their potential to adapt. The differences are such that they range from being relatively favorably positioned, to being open to adverse outcomes in the future. The summary of global and national trends provides the setting for the second half of the chapter, which presents an overview of the applications of transition theories in the study of population aging. Just as demographic trends have proceeded beyond previous expectations, so too research is transforming the theoretical bases of our understanding of population aging. The chapter reviews three theories – namely the demographic transition, the epidemiologic transition, and the second demographic transition – as the foundation for the discussion, in later chapters, of the new demography of aging, the health of aging populations and the pivotal role of the family in demographic trends.

Keywords

Population Aging Develop Region Transition Theory Demographic Transition Fertility Decline 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Annan, K. (1998). International year of older persons. United Nations. http://www.un.org/NewLinks/older/99/older.htm. Accessed May 2011.
  2. Ariès, P. (1980). Two successive motivations for the declining birth rate in the West. Population and Development Review, 6(4), 645–650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bongaarts, J., & Bulatao, R. A. (1999). Completing the demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 25(3), 515–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Borrie, W.D. (Chairman). (1978). Population and Australia: Recent demographic trends and their implications (Supplementary report of the National Population Inquiry). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.Google Scholar
  5. Casterline, J. B. (2003). Demographic transition. In P. Demeny & G. McNicoll (Eds.), Encyclopaedia of population (pp. 210–216). New York: Macmillan Reference.Google Scholar
  6. Coale, A. J., & Demeny, P. (1983). Regional model life tables and stable populations. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  7. Coale, A. J., & Guo, G. (1990). New regional model life tables at high expectation of life. Population Index, 56, 26–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Hauser, P. M. (1976). Aging and world-wide population change. In R. H. Binstock & E. Shanas (Eds.), Handbook of aging and the social sciences (pp. 59–86). New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.Google Scholar
  9. Laslett, P. (1989). A fresh map of life: The emergence of the third age. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.Google Scholar
  10. Lesthaeghe, R., & Surkyn, J. (2008). When history moves on: The foundations and diffusion of a second demographic transition. In R. Jayakody, A. Thornton, & W. G. Axinn (Eds.), Ideational perspectives on international family change (pp. 81–118). New York: Lawrence Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  11. Lesthaeghe, R., & van de Kaa, D. J. (1986). Twee demografische transities? In R. Lesthaeghe & D. J. van de Kaa (Eds.), Bevolking: groei en krimp, mens en maatschappij book supplement (pp. 9–24). Deventer: Van Loghum-Slaterus.Google Scholar
  12. Maslow, A. (1954). Motivation and personality. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
  13. Myers, G. C., & Eggers, M. (1996). Demography. In J. E. Birren (Ed.), Encyclopedia of gerontology: Age, aging and the aged. San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  14. National Research Council. (2001). Preparing for an aging world: The case for cross-national research. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  15. Omran, A. R. (1971). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 49, 509–538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Omran, A. R. (1981). The epidemiologic transition. In J. A. Ross (Ed.), International encyclopaedia of population (pp. 172–175). New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  17. Population Reference Bureau. (2010). 2010 World Population Data Sheet. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.Google Scholar
  18. Rogers, R. G., & Hackenberg, R. (1987). Extending epidemiologic transition theory: A new stage. Social Biology, 34, 234–243.Google Scholar
  19. United Nations. (1973). The determinants and consequences of population trends (Vol. 1). New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies No. 50, ST/SOA/SER. A/50.Google Scholar
  20. United Nations. (2001). World population prospects: The 2000 revision (CD, disk 1: standard set). New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.Google Scholar
  21. United Nations. (2009). World population prospects: The 2008 revision population database. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. http://esa.un.org/UNPP/index.asp?panel=2. Accessed April 2010.
  22. van de Kaa, D. J. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–59.Google Scholar
  23. Vaupel, J. W., & Loichinger, E. (2006). Redistributing work in ageing Europe. Science, 312(5782), 1911–1913.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Weeks, J. R. (2002). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. Belmont: Wadsworth/Thomson Learning.Google Scholar
  25. Wilson, C. (2004). Fertility below replacement level. Science, 304(5668), 207–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Wilson, C., & Pison, G. (2004). More than half of the global population lives where fertility is below replacement level. Population and Societies, 405(October), 1–4.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Netherlands 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Donald T. Rowland
    • 1
  1. 1.School of Sociology Research School of Social SciencesThe Australian National UniversityCanberraAustralia

Personalised recommendations