Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management with Particular Emphasis on Southern Italy
A methodology to use climate change information in water resources evaluation is developed through a meaningful case study in southern Italy (the Apulia region). The problem of the effective information of climate model simulations with respect to small scale impact studies is developed taking into account the limited predictive capability of climate models. Therefore downscaling and bias-correction requirements are treated through a specific methodology based on a quantile variable correction adopting ground based observation of climate variables. The meteorological forcing for the impact study are obtained through the downscaling of atmospheric variables produced by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) called Protheus. The impact assessment on the water balance of the Apulia region (southern Italy) revealed a marked increase in the variability of hydrologic regimes (both runoff and groundwater recharge) as consequence of the increased rainfall variability predicted for the twenty-first century, while preserving a decreasing in the annual trend. Moreover, the analysis of climate change effects was performed focusing on the rainfall-discharge process of a strategic karst spring supplying the Apulia aqueduct. In this case study, no substantial variations in the annual mean discharge are recognized, although a marked decrease in the mean monthly discharge was found between October and December, which represent the start of the recharge period of Apennine aquifers. Such results represent a crucial water management issue that has to be addressed in terms of adaptation to meet future water resources requirements.
KeywordsGroundwater Recharge Regional Climate Model Hydrological Model Spring Discharge Water Balance Model
This research was undertaken under the European Union funded project CIRCE (FP6 Project No. 036961).
- 1.Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements, Food and Agriculture Organization Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Roma, 300 ppGoogle Scholar
- 3.Artale V, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’Aquila A, Herrmann M, Pisacane G, Ruti PM, Sannino G, Struglia MV, Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal JS, Rauscher S (2009) An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0691-8Google Scholar
- 6.De Girolamo AM, Limoni PP, Portoghese I, Vurro M (2001) Utilizzo di Tecniche GIS per la Valutazione del Bilancio Idrogeologico. Applicazione della Metodologia alla Penisola Salentina. L’Acqua 2:57–70Google Scholar
- 7.De Girolamo AM, Limoni PP, Portoghese I, Vurro M (2002) Il bilancio idrogeologico delle idrostrutture pugliesi: sovrasfruttamento e criteri di gestione. L’Acqua 3:33–45Google Scholar
- 11.Hamon WR (1963) Computation of direct runoff amounts from storm rainfall. Int Assoc Sci Hydrol Publ 63:52–62Google Scholar
- 14.Polemio M, Casarano D (2004) Rainfall and drought in Southern Italy (1821–2001). In The basis of Civilization – Water Science? IAHS Pub 286:217–227Google Scholar
- 15.Portoghese I, Uricchio V, Vurro M (2005) A GIS tool for hydrogeological water balance evaluation on a regional scale in semi-arid environments. Comput Geosci 31–1:15–27Google Scholar
- 16.Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev (Am Geogr Soc) 38(1):55–94Google Scholar
- 19.Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Chang 62:189–216Google Scholar