Skip to main content

Analysis of Streamflow Trend in the Susquehanna River Basin, USA

  • Chapter
Hydrologic Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice

Abstract

Streamflow statistics are extensively employed for the management and development of water resources. The magnitude and frequency of streamflows in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) are often used by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) and other agencies for the purposes of water resources planning and management (SRBC, 2006). For example, a wide range of streamflow statistics are used for consumptive water use mitigation, reservoir operation, and minimum release management. Water resources engineers and managers often implicitly assume that streamflow series are stationary over time when using streamflow data and statistics (SRBC, 2006; Zhang and Kroll, 2007a,b; Milly et al., 2008). This assumption may not be valid if the watershed under consideration is sensitive to human disturbance and/or climate change. More generally, climate variability, and change in population, land use and water use are implicated in the non- stationarity of streamflow series (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2009; Lins and Stakhiv, 1998; Milly et al., 2008). In a review of its consumptive use mitigation strategy, the SRBC examined the frequency and duration of consumptive use compensation releases from reservoirs located in the upper reaches of the SRB. It was evident that the number and frequency of 7-day-10-year low flow (Q710) events had dropped substantially since around 1970. This suggests that the assumption of stationarity in the basin might be invalid. Therefore, an investigation of the assumption of streamflow stationarity in the SRB was of interest.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Bhutiyani, M.R., Vishwas, S.K. and Pawar, N.J. (2008). Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century. Current Science, 95(5): 618-626.

    Google Scholar 

  • Changnon, S.A. and Demissie, M. (1996). Detection of changes in streamflow and floods resulting from climate fluctuations and land use-drainage changes. Climatic Change, 32(4): 411-421.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M. and Kroll, C.N. (2000). Trends in floods and low flow in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240: 90105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groisman, P.Y., Knight, R.W. and Karl, T.R. (2001). Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the 20th century. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 82: 219-246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. (1992). Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Elsevier Science Publishing Company Inc., New York, 522 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch, R.M. and Slack, J.R. (1984). A non-parametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resources Research, 20: 727-732.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalra, A., Piechota, T.C., Davies, R. and Tootle, G.A. (2008). Changes in U.S. streamflow and Western U.S. snowpack. Journal of Hydrologie Engineering, ASCE, 13(3): 156-163.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall, M.G. (1962). Rank Correlation Methods. 3rd edition. Hafner Publishing Co., New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis, D. and Montanari, A. (2007). Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights. Water Resources Research, 43, W05429, DOI: 10.1029/2006WR005592.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis, D., Montanari, A., Lins, H.F. and Cohn, T.A. (2009). Climate, hydrology and freshwater: Towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research - discussion of "The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management". Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2): 394-405.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kroll, C.N., Luz, J.G., Allen, T.B. and Vogel, R.M. (2004). Developing a watershed characteristics database to improve low streamflow prediction. Journal ofHydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 9(2): 116-125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni, A. and von Storch, H. (1995). Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4(2): 82-85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. and Wallis, J.R. (1994). Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-88. Journal of Climate, 7: 586-607.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lins, H.F. and Slack, J.R. (1999). Streamflow trends in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(2): 227-230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lins, H.F. and Stakhiv, E.Z. (1998). Managing the nation's water in a changing climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(6): 1255-1264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machiwal, D. and Jha, M.K. (2006). Time series analysis of hydrologic data for water resources planning and management: A review. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 54(3): 237-257.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann, H.B. (1945). Nonparametric test against trend. Econometrica, 13: 245-259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marsh, B. and Lewis, P.E. (1995). Landforms and human habitat. In: E.W. Miller (editor), A Geography of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania State University Press, University Park, PA, pp. 17-43.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCabe, G.J. and Wolock, D.M. (2002). A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(24): 2185-2188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, W.P. and Piechota, T.C. (2008). Regional analysis of trend and step change observed in hydroclimatic variables around the Colorado River basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9(5): 1020-1034.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly, P.C.D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R.M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Lettenmaier, D.P. and Stouffer, R.J. (2008). Stationarity is dead: Whither water management. Science, 319: 573-574.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly, P.C.D., Dunne, K.A. and Vecchia, A.V. (2005). Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438: 347-350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (2009). Pennsylvania Water Atlas of the State Water Plan. Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Harrisburg, PA, 332 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shahin M., Van Oorschot, H.J.L. and De Lange, S.J. (1993). Statistical Analysis in Water Resources Engineering. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 394 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Slack, J.R. and Landwehr, J.M. (1992). Hydro-Climatic Data Network: A U.S. Geological Survey Streamflow Data Set for the United States for the Study of Climate Variations, 1874-1988. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 92-129.

    Google Scholar 

  • SRBC (2006). Conowingo Pond Management Plan. SRBC Publication No. 242, Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), Harrisburg, PA, 153 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vogel, R.M., Bell, C.J. and Fennessey, N.M. (1997). Climate streamflow and water supply in the northeastern United States. Journal of Hydrology, 198(1-4): 42-68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Storch, H. (1995). Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: H. von Storch and A. Navarra (editors), Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 11-26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu, H., Soh, L.-K., Smal, A. and Chen, X.-H. (2008). Trend analysis of streamflow drought events in Nebraska. Water Resources Management, 22: 145-164.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue, S., Pilon, P. and Cavadias, G. (2002a). Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal ofHydrology, 259: 254-271.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002b). The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, 16: 1807-1829.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Z. and Kroll, C. (2007a). Closer look at the baseflow correlation method. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 12(2): 190-196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Z. and Kroll, C. (2007b). The baseflow correlation method with multiple gauged sites. Journal ofHydrology, 347(3-4): 371-380.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Z., Dehoff, A.A. and Pody, R.D. (2010a). A new approach to identify trend pattern of streamflows. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 15(3): 244248.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Z., Dehoff, A.A., Pody, R.D. and Balay, J.W. (2010b). Detection of streamflow change in the Susquehanna River Basin. Water Resources Management, 24(10): 1947-1964.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu, Y. and Day, R.L. (2005). Analysis of streamflow trends and the effects of climate in Pennsylvania, 1971 to 2001. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41(6): 1393-1405.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2012 Capital Publishing Company

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Machiwal, D., Jha, M.K. (2012). Analysis of Streamflow Trend in the Susquehanna River Basin, USA. In: Hydrologic Time Series Analysis: Theory and Practice. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1861-6_9

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics