Cosmic Rays and Space Weather

Abstract

This lecture is an example how fundamental research in Cosmic Ray Astrophysics and Geophysics can be applied to very important modern practical problem: monitoring by cosmic rays space weather and prediction by using on-line cosmic ray data space phenomena dangerous for satellites electronics and astronauts health in the space, for crew and passengers health on commercial jets in atmosphere, and in some rare cases for technology and people on the ground.

It is well known that in periods of great FEP (Flare Energetic Particle), fluxes can be so big that memory of computers and other electronics in space may be destroyed, satellites and spacecrafts became dead (each year insurance companies paid more than 500,000,000 dollars for these failures; if will be event as February 23, 1956 will be destroyed about all satellites in 1–2 hours, the price of this will be more than 10–20 Billion dollars, total destroying satellite communications and a lot of other problems). In these periods is necessary to switch off some part of electronics for short time to protect computer memories. These periods are also dangerous for astronauts on space-ships, and passengers and crew in commercial jets (especially during S5 radiation storms). The problem is how to forecast exactly these dangerous phenomena. We show that exact forecast can be made by using high-energy particles (about 5–10 GeV/nucleon and higher) which transportation from the Sun is characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficient than for small and middle energy particles. Therefore high energy particles came from the Sun much more early (8–20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than main part of smaller energy particles caused dangerous situation for electronics and people health (about 30–60 minutes later).

We describe here principles and experience of automatically working programs “FEP-Search-1 min”, “FEP-Search-2 min”,“FEP-Search-5 min”, developed and checked in the Emilio Segre’ Observatory of Israel Cosmic Ray Center (2025 m above sea level, cut-off rigidity 10.8 GV). The second step is automatically determination of flare energetic particle spectrum, and then automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source; forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere and on the ground.

We will describe also the theory and experience of high energy cosmic ray data using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects (what influenced very much on communications, working of navigation systems, satellites and high-level technology systems in space and, in the atmosphere, and on the ground).

The lecture consists from 7 parts:

• 1. Introduction

• 2. Satellite malfunctions and space weather.

• 3. Data from the past and classification of space weather dangerous phenomena (NOAA classification and its modernization)

• 4. On-line search of the start of great Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events, automatically formation of Alerts, estimation of probability of false alerts and probability of missing alerts (realized in Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory).

• 5. On-line determination of flare energetic particle spectrum by the method of coupling functions.

• 6. On-line determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum of FEP in source.

• 7. On-line forecasting of expected FEP flux and radiation hazard for space-probes in space, satellites in the magnetosphere, jets and various objects in the atmosphere, and on the ground in dependence of cut-off rigidity.

• 8. Cosmic ray using for forecasting of major geomagnetic storms accompanied by Forbush-effects.