Abstract
Hydrological models have a wide range of applications in water resources planning and management as well as flood forecasting and climate impact assessments. In the latter case, they are usually coupled to meteorological or climate models. In this study, two hydrological models (Hydrologiske Byrån avdeling för Vattenbalans (HBV) and Nile Forecast System (NFS)) are applied to the Atbara catchment, Nile River basin area to study the sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. The HBV model is a conceptual lumped model while the other NFS is a conceptual distributed model. Atbara River is the last major tributary of the Nile River and has a highly seasonal pattern with very high flows during the flood season and almost zero flows during the dry season. These features pose problems to the calibration of hydrological models. However, both models were able to capture the main features of the monthly flow time series of the Atbara (Nash efficiency index reached 0.92 for HBV and 0.68 for NFS). Results indicate a very high climate sensitivity of the catchment where rainfall increases of 10, 20 and 30% result in runoff increases of 29, 62, and 97%, respectively. The catchment runoff is also sensitive to changes in potential evapotranspiration but to a lesser extent. These results are confirmed by the two used models with slight differences.
Keywords
- Nile
- Atbara
- Climate sensitivity
- Hydrological models
- HBV
- NFS
This chapter was earlier published in Ain Shams Journal of Civil Engineering, Egypt vol. 2, September 2009, pp. 367–378.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Arheimer B, Fogelberg S (2001) HBV Modeling in several european countries. Internet website http://ttp://euroharp.org/index.htm
Arheimer B (1998) Riverine nitrogen – analysis and modeling under Nordic conditions. Kanaltryckeriet, Motala, p 200
Astere Nindamutsa (2007) Comparison of the performance of rainfall-runoff hydrological models in Ruvubu River Basin. MS.C Thesis, Arba MInch University School of Graduate Studies, Ethiopia
Bergström B, Carlsson B (1994) River runoff to the baltic sea: 1950–1990. Ambio 23:280–287
Bergström S, Harlin J, Lindström G (1992) Spillway design floods in Sweden. I: New guidelines. Hydrol Sci J 37(5):505–519
Booij MJ (2002) Appropriate hydrological modeling of climate change impacts on River flooding. Water Resources Management Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands (m.j.booij@ctw.utwente.nl)
Brandt M, Bergström S (1994) Integration of field data into operational snowmelt-runoff models. Nordic Hydrol 25:101–112
Georgakakos K, Carpenter TM, Sperfslage JA (2001) Adjusting parameter values for the hydrologic models of the NFS. HRC Technical Note No. 14. Hydrologic Research Centre, San Diego, USA
Graham P (1999). Modelling runoff to the baltic basin. Ambio 28:328–334
Jutman T (1992). Production of a new runoff map of Sweden. Nordic hydrological conference, Alta, Norway, NHP report No. 30. pp 643–651
Lindström G, Rodhe A (1992). Transit times of water in soil Lysimeters from modeling of oxygen-18. Water Air Soil Pollut 65:83–100
LNDFC (2005) Impact of climate change on the water supply to Egypt. Ministry of water resources and irrigation, Nile Forecasting Center, Lake Nasser Flood and Drought Control Project (LNDFC/ICC)
Madsen H (2000) Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives. J Hydrol 235:276–288
Mohamed E (2006) Improvement of the hydrological performance of land surface parameterization: an application to the Nile Basin. Ph.D Thesis, Environmental and Water Resources Engineering Department of Civil Engineering Imperial College of Science, Technology, and Medicine London SW7 2BU
Mohamed E, Baligira R, Abdel-Ghaffar E, Moges SA (2009) Investigating the climate sensitivity of different nile sub-basins. Thirteenth international water technology conference, Hurghada, Egypt, 12–15 March
Sayed MAA, Saad B (2002) The Experience of the Nile forecast centre (NFC) in managing floods and setting strategies for knowledge dissemination. The 18th Congress on Irrigation and Drainage. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Montreal, Canada
Semmler T, Wangs M, Mcgralh R, Nolanp N (2006) Regional climate ensemble simulation for Ireland impact of climate change on River flooding. Natl Hydrol Seminar
Shahin (1985) Hydrology of the Nile Basin, developments in water science. International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Oude DELT 95, 2601 DA Delt, The Netherlands
Yemti I (2007) Rainfall estimation by remote sensing for conceptual rainfall- runoff modeling in the upper blue Nile Basin. MS.C Thesis, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation. Enscheda, The Netherlands
Zaghloull S, El-Moattassem M, Rady AA (2005) The Hydrological interactions between the white and the blue Niles at the confluence region. The international conference of UNESCO friend/Nile project Sharm El-Shiekh, Egypt, 12–15 Nov
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 All Rights Reserved
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hasan, E., Elshamy, M. (2011). Application of Hydrological Models for Climate Sensitivity Estimation of the Atbara Sub-basin. In: Melesse, A.M. (eds) Nile River Basin. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-0688-0
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-0689-7
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)