Scenarios for Engaging a Rural Australian Community in Climate Change Adaptation Work

Abstract

The Hamilton region in Victoria, Australia is a rural farming community consisting of several small towns and the regional center of Hamilton. The region is already experiencing climate change, with a steady decline in annual rainfall and available groundwater, and increased frequency of droughts. A prolonged drought has necessitated ongoing water restrictions and forced farmers to alter cropping and stocking practices. Rainfall patterns are predicted to shift further toward the dry, which will affect farm viability, as will increased transport costs due to rising oil prices. The challenges the community face have led to a high local interest in understanding and responding to climate change. When the authors organized a public meeting in April 2007, over 70 people attended. They wanted to take immediate action on climate change, not wait for new national policies.

A scenario thinking workshop was held in February 2008. Forty-one representatives of different sectors within the community participated. They developed four different stories of the future and undertook an initial analysis to identify implications and adaptation strategies. This revealed that climate change could have far more complex impacts on the region than first imagined. Possible impacts included higher levels of financial pressures, stress, mental illness, and addictive behaviors, affecting community cohesion and quality of life, plus possible farm closures, high unemployment, and associated population losses, affecting the viability of small towns. Strategies identified to reduce the vulnerability of the region included altering farming practices, ensuring water security, building social cohesion, attracting new residents, and diversifying employment opportunities. The local shire council, regional health service, and others have used the workshop outcomes to rethink their strategic plans.