Abstract
Coral reefs around the world and the populations who directly and indirectly depend on them are facing a multitude of global, regional, and local threats. In face of these unprecedented global changes, it is critical to understand how coral reef ecosystems and the goods and services they provide will evolve. The problem is complex and its solution is difficult because of the nature of biophysical connectivity of coral reef systems, and their connection with human social and economic systems. In order to increase our knowledge and the predictive capacities necessary to determine how coral reef ecosystems will respond to global change, it is necessary to employ a combination of data synthesis and numerical simulation. The increase in the knowledge base and predictive capacities regarding the influence of the drivers: ocean circulation, climate, ocean-acidification, terrestrial run-offs driven by enhanced human activities such as the clearing of native vegetation and its replacement with intensive agriculture and coastal development, pollution, overfishing, and invasive species on marine coral reef ecosystems is central for the effective management and conservation of coral reef ecosystem services. Modeling at multiple scales has revealed to be a vital tool in meeting this challenge by providing important technology that allows managers, other decision makers, and users to see the dynamics of the whole system – including ecological, biophysical, socioeconomic, and restoration aspects. The aim of this review is to provide information concerning the studies of local and regional coral reef ecosystem models, the coupling of ecological and social system models and models based on ecosystems as well as to provide suggestions for future development and use of models for science-based management of global change
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Aliño PM, McManus LT, McManus JW, Nañola C, Fortes MD, Trono GC, Jacinto GS (1993) Initial parameter estimations of a coral reef flat ecosystem in Bolinao, Pangasinan, Northwestern Philippines. In: Christensen V, Pauly D (eds) Trophic models of aquatic ecosystems, vol 26, pp. 252–258. ICLARM Conference Proceedings
Adams WM, Aveling R, Brockington D, Dickson B, Elliott J, Hutton J, Roe D, Vira B, Wolmer W (2004) Biodiversity conservation and the eradication of poverty. Science 306:1146–1149
Ainsworth CH, Varkey DA, Pitcher TJ (2008) Ecosystem simulations supporting ecosystem-based fisheries management in the coral triangle. Indones Ecol Model 214:361–374
Arias-González JE (1993) Fonctionnement trophique d’un ècosystème récifal: secteur de Tiahura, île de Moorea, Polynésie francaise. Thèse de doctorat, EPHE, Perpignan
Arias-González JE, Salvat B, Delesalle B, Galzin R (1997) Trophic fonctioning of the Tiahura sector “Moorea Island, French Polynesia”. Coral Reefs 16:231–246
Arias-González JE, Garza-Pérez JR, González-Salas CF, González-Gándara C, Hernández-Landa RC, Membrillo-Venegas N, Nuñez-Lara E, Pérez E, Ruíz-Zárate MA (2000) Coral reef ecosystem research: towards integrated coastal management on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. In: Done T, Lloyd D (eds) Information management and decision support for marine biodiversity protection and human welfare: coral reefs. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, pp 39–50
Arias-González JE, González-Salas CF, Nuñez-Lara E, Galzin R (2004) Trophic models for investigation of fishing effect on coral reef ecosystems. Ecol Model 172:197–212
Atkinson MJ, Grigg RW (1984) Model of a coral reef ecosystem. II: gross and net primary production at French Frigate Shoals, Hawaii. Coral Reefs 3:313–322
Barreteau O, Le Page C, Perez P (2007) Contribution of simulation and gaming to natural resource management issues: an introduction. Simul Gam 38:185–194
Beisner BE, Haydon DT, Cuddington K (2003) Alternative stable states in ecology. Front Ecol Environ 1:376–382
Bellwood DR, Hughes TP (2001) Regional-scale assembly rules and biodiversity of coral reefs. Science 292:1532–1534
Bellwood DR, Hughes TP, Folke C, Nystrom M (2004) Confronting the coral reef crisis. Nature 429:827–833
Bode M, Bode L, Armsworth PR (2006) Larval dispersal reveals regional sources and sinks in the Great Barrier Reef. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 308:17–25
Bozec Y-M, Gascuel D, Kulbicki M (2004) Trophic model of lagoonal communities in a large open atoll (Uvea, Loyalty islands, New Caledonia). Aquat Living Resour 17:151–162
Bulte E, Hector A, Larigauderie A (2005) ecoSERVICES: Assessing the impacts of biodiversity changes on ecosystem functioning and services, p 40. DIVERSITAS Report 3
Bunce L, Townsley P, Pomeroy RS, Pollnac R (2000) Socioeconomic manual for coral reef management. AIMS, Townsville
Burkepile DE, Hay ME (2006) Herbivore vs. nutrient control of marine primary producers: context-dependent effects. Ecology 87:3128–3139
Carpenter KE, Abrar M, Aeby G, Aronson RB, Banks S, Bruckner A, Chiriboga A, Cortés J, Delbeek JCh, DeVantier L, Edgar GJ, Edwards AJ, Fenner D, Guzmán HM, Hoeksema BW, Hodgson G, Johan O, Licuanan WY, Livingstone SR, Lovell ER, Moore JA, Obura DO, Ochavillo D, Polidoro BA, Precht WF, Quibilan MC, Reboton C, Richards ZT, Rogers AD, Sanciangco J, Sheppard A, Sheppard Ch, Smith J, Stuart S, Turak E, Veron JEN, Wallace C, Weil E, Wood E (2008) One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts. Science 321:560–563
Collie JS, Richardson K, Steele JH (2004) Regime shifts: can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms? Progr Oceanogr 60:281–302
Costanza R, d’Arge R, de Groot R, Farberparallel S, Grasso M, Hannon B, Limburg K, Naeem S, O’Neill RV, Paruelo J, Raskin RG, Suttonparallelparallel P, van den Belt M (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 19:253–260
Cowen RK, Paris CB, Srinivasan A (2000) Connectivity of marine populations: open or closed? Science 311:857–859
Cowen RK, Paris CB, Srinavasan AB (2006) Scaling of connectivity in marine populations. Science 311:522–527
Dambacher JM, Brewer DT, Dennis DM, McIntyre M, Foale S (2007) Qualitative modelling of gold mine impacts on Lihir Island’s socioeconomic system and reef-edge fish community. Environ Sci Technol 41:555–562
Daltabuit M, Vasquez LM, Cisneros H, Ruiz GA (2006) El Turismo en la Ecorregion del Sistema Arrecifal Mesoamericano. UNAM-CRIM, Cuernavaca, Mexico, WWF, Washington
Diaz-Pulido G, McCook LJ (2004) Effects of live coral, epilithic algal communities and substrate type on algal recruitment. Coral Reefs 23:225–233
Done TJ (1992) Phase shifts in coral reef communities and their ecological significance. Hydrobiologia 247:121–132
Fung TC (2009) Local scale models of coral reef ecosystems for scenario testing and decisions support. Ph.D. thesis, University College, London
Fung TC, Seymour RM, Johnson CR (in press). Alternative stable states and phase shifts in coral reefs under anthropogenic stress. Ecology
Fulton EA, Smith ADM, Johnson CR (2003) Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 253:1–16
Gray R, Fulton E, Little R, Scott R (2006) Ecosystem model specification with an agent based framework. Northwest Shelf joint environmental management study. Technical Report No. 16, CSIRO
Gribble NA (2003) GBR-prawn: modelling ecosystem impacts of changes in fisheries management of the commercial prawn (shrimp) trawl fishery in the far northern Great Barrier Reef. Fish Res 65:493–506
Grigg RW, Polovina JJ, Atkinson MJ (1984) Model of a coral reef ecosystem. III. Resource limitation, community regulation, fisheries yield and resource management. Coral Reefs 3:23–27
Gurung TR, Bousquet F, Trébuil G (2006) Companion modeling, conflict resolution, and institution building: sharing irrigation water in the Lingmuteychu Watershed, Bhutan. Ecol Soci 11:36. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art36/
Hall ChAS (ed) (2000) Quantifying sustainable development: the future of tropical economies. Academic, San Diego
Hannon B, Mathias R (1997) Modeling dynamics biological systems. Springer, New York
Hanski I, Gyllenberg M (1993) Two general metapopulation models and the core-satellite species hypothesis. Am Nat 142:17–41
Hatcher BG (1997) Coral reef ecosystems: how much greater is the whole then the sum of the parts? Proc 8th Int Coral Reef Symp 1:43–56
Hatcher BG, Imberger J, Smith SV (1987) Scaling analysis of coral reef systems: an approach to problems of scale. Coral Reefs 5:171–181
Hay ME (1984) Patterns of fish and urchin grazing on Caribbean coral reefs: are previous results typical? Ecology 65:446–454
Hobbs RJ, Suding KN (eds) (2009) New models for ecosystem dynamics and restoration. Island Press, Washington, DC
Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ, Hooten AJ, Steneck RS, Greenfield P, Gomez E, Harvell CD, Sale PF, Edwards AJ, Caldeira K, Knowlton N, Eakin CM, Iglesias-Prieto R, Muthiga N, Bradbury RH, Dubi A, Hatziolos ME (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 5857:1737–1742
Hughes TP (1984) Population-dynamics based on individual size rather than age – a general-model with a reef coral example. Am Nat 123:778–795
Hughes TP (1994) Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large-scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef. Science 265:1547–1551
Hughes TP, Tanner JE (2000) Recruitment failure, life histories, and long-term decline of Caribbean corals. Ecology 81:2250–2263
Hughes TP, Baird AH, Bellwood DR, Card M, Connolly SR, Folke C, Grosberg R (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301:929–933
Hughes TP, Bellwood DR, Folke C, Steneck RS, Wilson J (2005) New paradigms for supporting the resilience of marine ecosystems. Tree 20:380–386
Jackson JBC, Kirby MX, Berger WH, Bjorndal KA, Botsford LW, Bourque BJ, Bradbury RH, Cooke R, Erlandson J, Estes JA, Hughes TP, Kidwell S, Lange CB, Lenihan HS, Pandolfi JM, Peterson ChH, Steneck RS, Tegner MJ, Warner RR (2001) Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293:629–638
Johnson CR, Preece AL (1993) Damage, scale and recovery in model coral communities: the importance of system state. Proc 7th Int Coral Reef Symp 1:606–615
Johnson C, Klumpp D, Field J, Bradbury R (1995) Carbon flux on coral reef: effects of large shifts in community structure. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 126:123–143
Jompa J, McCook LJ (2002) Effects of competition and herbivory on interactions between a hard coral and a brown alga. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 271:25–39
Jones GP, Milicich MI, Emslie MJ, Lunow C (1999) Self-recruitment in a coral reef fish population. Nature 402:802–804
Juárez A (2002) Ecological degradation, global tourism, and inequality: Maya interpretations of the changing environment in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Hum Organiz 61:113–124
Knowlton N (2001) The future of coral reefs. Proc Nat Acad Sci U S A 98:5419–5425
Lachica-Aliño L, Wolff M, David LT (2006) Past and future fisheries modelling approaches in the Philippines. Rev Fish Biol Fish 16:201–2112
Langmead O, Sheppard C (2004) Coral reef community dynamics and disturbance: a simulation model. Ecol Model 175:271–290
Levins R (1970) Complex systems. In: Waddington CH (ed) Towards a theoretical biology, vol 3. Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh, pp 73–88
Lirman D (2003) A simulation model of the population dynamics of the branching coral Acropora palmata – effects of storm intensity and frequency. Ecol Model 161:169–182
Little LR, Punt AE, Mapstone BD, Pantus F, Smith ADM, Davies CR, McDonald AD (2007) ELFSim – a model for evaluating management options for spatially structured reef populations: an illustration of the ‘larval subsidy’ effect. Ecol Model 205:381–396
Lutz W, Prieto L, Sanderson W (eds) (2000) Population, development, and environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: from ancient Maya to 2030. IIASA, Laxenburg
Lynam T, De Jong W, Sheil D, Kusumanto T, Evans K (2007) A review of tools for incorporating community knowledge, preferences, and values into decision making in natural resources management. Ecol Soc 12:5
Maguire LA, Porter JW (1977) A spatial model of growth and competition strategies in coral communities. Ecol Model 3:249–271
Melbourne-Thomas J, Johnson CR, Fung T, Seymour R, Chérubin M, Arias-González JE, Fulton EA (in press). Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system. Ecol Appl doi:10.1890/09–1564.1
Melbourne-Thomas J, Johnson CR, Aliño PM, Geronimo RC, Villanoy CL, Gurney GG (2011). A multi-scale biophysical model to inform regional management of coral reefs in the western Philippines and South China Sea. Environ Model Soft 26:66–82
McCausland WD, Mente E, Pierce GJ, Theodossiou I (2006) A simulation model of sustainability of coastal communities: aquaculture, fishing, environment and labour markets. Ecol Model 193:271–294
McClanahan TR (1995) A coral reef ecosystem-fisheries model: impacts of fishing intensity and catch selection on reef structure and processes. Ecol Model 80:1–19
McClanahan T, Polunin N, Done T (2002) Ecological states and the resilience of coral reefs. Cons Ecol 6:18. (online) URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss2/art18
McCook LJ (1999) Macroalgae, nutrients and phase shifts on coral reefs: scientific issues and management consequences for the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 18:357–367
McCook LJ (2001) Competition between corals and algal turfs along a gradient of terrestrial influence in the nearshore central Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 19:419–425
McManus JW, Polsenberg JF (2004) Coral-algal phase shifts on coral reefs: ecological and environmental aspects. Progr Oceanogr 60:263–279
Miller JH, Page SF (2007) Complex adaptive systems: an introduction to computational models of social life. Princeton University Press, Princeton, p 284
Mumby PJ (2006) The impact of exploiting grazers (scaridae) on the dynamics of Caribbean coral reefs. Ecol Appl 16:747–769
Mumby PJ, Hastings A (2006) Connectivity of reef fish between mangroves and coral reefs: algorithms for the design of marine reserves at seascape scales. Biol Consow 128:215–222
Mumby PJ, Hedley JD, Zychaluk K, Harborne AR, Blackwell PG (2006) Revisiting the catastrophic die-off of the urchin Diadema antillarum on Caribbean coral reefs: fresh insights on resilience from a simulation model. Ecol Model 196:131–148
Niquil N, Arias-González JE, Delesalle B, Ulanowicz R (1999) Characterization of the planktonic food web of Takapoto atoll, using network analysis. Oecologia 118:232–241
Odum HT, Odum EP (1955) Trophic structure and productivity of windward coral reef community on Eniwetok atoll. Ecol Monogr 25:291–320
Opitz S (1996) Trophic interactions in Caribbean coral reefs. ICLARM Technical Report 43, p. 341
Pandolfi JM, Bradbury RH, Sala E, Hughes TP, Bjorndal KA, Cooke RG, McArdle D, McClenachan L, Newman MJH, Paredes G, Warner RR, Jackson JBC (2003) Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems. Science 301:955–958
Paris CB, Cherubin LM, Cowen RK (2007) Surfing, spinning or diving from reef to reef: effects on population connectivity. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 347:285–300
Perez P (2008) Embracing social uncertainties with complex systems science. In: Smithson M, Bammer G (eds) Challenges of uncertainty. EarthScan Publisher, London, pp 147–155
Perez P, Dray A, Cleland D, Arias-González JE (2009) SimReef: an agent-based model to address coastal management issues in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. In: Anderssen RS, Braddock RD, Newham LTH (eds) 18th World IMACS congress and MODSIM09 international congress on modelling and simulation, pp 72–79. MSSANZ/IMACS, Canberra, http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/H6/perez.pdf
Polovina JJ (1984) Model of a coral reef ecosystem: I. The ECOPATH model and its application to French Frigate Shoals. Coral Reefs 3:1–11
Pomeroy RS, Parks JE, Watson LM (2004) How is your MPA doing? IUCN, Cambridge
Preece AL, Johnson CR (1993) Recovery of model coral communities: complex behaviours from interaction of parameters operating at different spatial scales. In: Green DG, Bossomaier T (eds) Complex systems: from biology to computation. IOS Press, Amsterdam, pp 69–81
Sale PF (2008) Management of coral reefs: where we have gone wrong and what we can do about it. Mar Poll Bull 56:805–809
Sandin SA, Smith JE, DeMartini EE, Dinsdale E, Donner SD, Friedlander AM, Konotchick T, Malay M, Maragos8 JE, Obura D, Pantos O, Paulay G, Richie M, Rohwer F, Schroeder RE, Sheila Walsh1, Jackson JBC, Knowlton N, Sala E (2008) Baselines and degradation of coral reefs in the northern Line Islands. PLoS One 3: e1548. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001548
Shafer JL (2007, August) Agent based simulation of a recreational reef fishery: linking ecological and social dynamics. Ph.D. University of Hawaii, Hondulu, p 209
Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folkes C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591–596
Scheffer M, Carpenter S, de Young B (2005) Cascading effects of overfishing marine systems. Trends Ecol Evol 20:579–581
Sorokin IY (1973) Microbial aspects of productivity of coral reefs. In: Jones O, Endean R (eds) Biology and geology of coral reefs, 2. Biology 1. Academic, New York, pp 17–45
Sorokin IY (1993) Coral reefs ecology. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York
Stobutzki I (2001) Marine reserves and the complexity of larval dispersal. Rev Fish Biol Fish 10:515–518
Swearer SE, Shima JS, Hellberg ME, Thorrold SR, Jones GP, Robertson DR, Morgan SG, Selkoe KA, Ruiz GM, Warner RR (2002) Evidence of self-recruitment in demersal marine populations. Bull Mar Sci 70(Suppl 1):251–271
Treml EA, Halpin PN, Urban DL, Pratson LF (2008) Modeling population connectivity by ocean currents, a graph-theoretic approach for marine conservation. Landscape Ecol 23:19–36
Tsehaye I, Nagelkerke LAJ (2008) Exploring optimal fishing scenarios for the multispecies artisanal fisheries of Eritrea using a trophic model. Ecol Model 212:319–333
Villa F, Constanza R (2000) Design of multi-paradigm integrating modelling tools for ecological research. Environ Modell Softw 15:169–177
Waddell J (ed) (2005) The state of coral reef ecosystems of the United States and Pacific freely associated states: 2005, p 522. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS NCCOS 11. NOAA/NCCOS Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Team. Silver Spring
Wakeford M, Done TJ, Johnson CR (2008) Decadal trends in a coral community and evidence of changed disturbance regime. Coral Reefs 27:1–13
Walker BH, Anderies JM, Kinzig AP, Ryan P (eds) (2006) Exploring resilience in social-ecological systems comparative studies and theory development. CSIRO Publishing, Canberra
Wantiez L, Chauvet C (2003) First data on community structure and trophic Networks of Uvea coral reef fish assemblages (Wallis and Futuna, South Pacific Ocean). Cybium 27:83–100
Wilkinson CR (ed) (2008) Status of coral reefs of the World: 2008. Australian Institute for Marine Science, Journsirlle
World Bank (2006) Measuring coral reef ecosystem health: integrating social dimensions. The World Bank, Washington, Report No. 36623-GLB, 65
Wooldridge S, Done T, Berkelmans R, Jones R, Marshall P (2005) Precursors for resilience in coral communities in a warming climate: a belief approach. Mar Ecol Progr Ser 295:157–169
Yoon I, Williams RJ, Levine E, Yoon S, Dunne JA, Martinez ND (2004) Webs on the Web (WoW): 3D visualization of ecological networks on the WWW for collaborative research and education. Proc IS&T/SPIE Symp Electr Imag Visual Data Anal 5295:124–132
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Arias-González, J.E., Johnson, C., Seymour, R.M., Perez, P., Aliño, P. (2011). Scaling Up Models of the Dynamics of Coral Reef Ecosystems: An Approach for Science-Based Management of Global Change. In: Dubinsky, Z., Stambler, N. (eds) Coral Reefs: An Ecosystem in Transition. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0114-4_21
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0114-4_21
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-0113-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-0114-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)