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Grain Yield Prediction in the Russian Federation

  • Anna StrashnayaEmail author
  • Tamara Maksimenkova
  • Olga Chub
Conference paper
Part of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security book series (NAPSC)

Abstract

Some of the peculiarities of forecasting of grain-crops yield and leguminous plants in the Russian Federation are considered. The basis for a probabilistic empirical statistical method for step-by-step forecasting of yield productivity and croppage for the regions and the Russian Federation as whole, based on the agrometeorological factors and implemented on IBM personal computers is stated. The dynamic-statistical model presented is in the framework of the Information-Prognostic System (IPS). A possibility of forecasting yield productivity at the stage of harvesting during years of unfavorable conditions is shown. The results of skill scores forecasts are given.

Keywords

Grain yield Agrometeorological factors Dynamical–statistical models 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anna Strashnaya
    • 1
    Email author
  • Tamara Maksimenkova
    • 1
  • Olga Chub
    • 1
  1. 1.Hydrometeorological Research Centre, Roshydromet, Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian FederationMoscowRussia

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