Abstract
The analyses based on the observational data show that the tropical cyclone (TC) numbers tend to become decreasing over some oceanic basins during the recent multiple decades despite a rise in their sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A methodology of understanding the mechanism responsible for such seemingly counter intuitive phenomena is suggested in this chapter and thus the causality between the unusually heterogeneous pattern of SSTs in warming environment and TC frequency over, as an example, the western North Pacific (WNP) is explained. This methodology is important in that it provides an insight into the problem why under global warming high SSTs as one of the necessary conditions for TC genesis should unexpectedly contribute to TC number reduction, though locally, and furthermore, in view of that such phenomena have also been observed over the other oceanic basins than the WNP and that the principle of the technique is universal, this procedure of analysis can be expected to apply globally to examine the extreme weather/climate extent frequency trend in the worldwide warning conditions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bates JR (1970) Dynamics of disturbances on the intertropical convergence zone. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 96:677–701
Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Wea Rew 97: 163–172
Cerveny RS, Lawrimore J, Edwards R, Landsea C (2007) Extreme weather records. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:853–860
Chan SC, Evans JL (2002) Comparison of the Structure of the ITCZ in the West Pacific during the boreal summers of 1989–93 using AMIP simulations and ECMWF reanalysis. J Clim 15:3549–3568
Charney JG (1971) Tropical cyclonegenesis and the formation of the intertropical convergence zone, in mathematical problems of geophysical fluid dynamics. In: Reid WH (ed) Lectures in applied mathematics, vol 13. American Mathematical Society, 383 pp
Chauvin F, Royer J–F, Déqué M (2006) Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-climate at high resolution. Clim Dyn 27:377–399
CMA (1949–2007) Tropical cyclone annals. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 150 pp (each)
De Groot SR, Mazur P (1962) Non-equilibrium thermodynamics. North-Holland, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 510 pp
Easterling DR, Evana JL, Grosman PY, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review Bull Am Metor Soc 81:417–425
Elsner JB, Jagger TH (2009) Hurricanes and climate change, Springer, New York 380 pp
Graham NE, Barnett PT (1987) Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence and convection over tropical oceans. Science 238:657–659
Gray WM (1967) Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Wea Rev 96:669–700
Ho C-R, Yan X-H, Zheng Q (1995) Satellite observations of upper-layer variabilities in the western Pacific warm pool. Bull Am Meteor Soc 76:669–679
Holton JR, Wallace JM, Young JA (1971) On boundary layer dynamics and the ITCZ. J Atmos Sci 28:275–280
Holton JR (1992) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic, New York 535 pp
Kalnay E et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471
Karl TR, Kukla G, Razuvayev VN, Changery MJ, Quayle RJ, Heim RT Jr, Easterling DR, Fu CB (1991) Global warming: evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change. Geophys Res Lett 18:2253–2256
Lau K-M, Wu HT, Bony S (1997) The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the relationship between tropical convection and sea surface temperature. J Clim 10:81–392
Lin Y, Chao JP (1998) The processes of tropical semi-geostrophic adaptation. Sci China Ser D 41:566–573
Lindzen RS, Nigam S (1987) On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low level winds and convergence in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2440–2458
Liu C, Liu Y (2005) An attempt at improving a global spectral model by incorporating the second law of thermodynamics. Geophys Res Lett 32:L03806. doi:10.1029/2004GL021602
Liu C, Liu Y, Xu H (2006) A physics-based diffusion scheme for numerical models. Geophys Res Lett 33:L12805. doi:10.1029/2006GL025781
Liu Y, Liu C (2007) On the entropy flow properties of a severe tropical storm. Appl Phys Lett 91:014103. doi: 10.1063/1.2753538
Ma, L, Chen L (2009) The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. J Trop Meteor 15:38–44
Manton M., Eral J (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284
McBride JL, Ramsay H (2009) Relationship between tropical cyclone activity and sea surface temperature in the southern hemisphere, 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, May 31–June 5, Corfu, Greece
McDonald RE, Bleaken DG, Creswell DR, Pope VD, Senior CA (2005) Tropical storms: Representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impact of climate change. Clim Dyn 25:19–36
Prigogine I (1955) Introduction to thermodynamics of irreversible processes. Charles C. Thomas, Springfield, IL, 119 pp
Sugi M, Noda A, Sato N (2002) Influence of global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:249–272. doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.249
Von Storch H (2008) An attempt to homogeneously describe 60 years statistics of TC activity in East Asia, 1948–2007, 2008 Taiwan climate workshop, November 18, Taipei, Taiwan, China
Wang C, Li S-K, Enfield DB (2008) Atlantic warm pool acting as a link between Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Geochem Geophys Geosys 9:1–17. doi: 10.1029/2007GC001809
Wang SW, Gong DY (2000) Enhancement of the warming trend in China. Geophsys Res Lett 27:2581–2584
Xu H, Liu C (2008) Entropy flow properties of a typhoon as simulated by a meso-scale model. Europhys Lett 83:18001. doi: 10.1209/0295-5075/83/18001
Acknowledgment
This work has been jointly supported by 973 Program (2009CB421500), the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 40633016, 40875029, 40775038 and 40975036, as well as the Basic Research Project of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (2008LASWZI01).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Liu, C. et al. (2010). Linking Tropical Cyclone Number Over the Western North Pacific with Sea Surface Temperatures. In: Elsner, J., Hodges, R., Malmstadt, J., Scheitlin, K. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9510-7_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9510-7_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-9509-1
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-9510-7
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)