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Evidential Reasoning

  • Marcello Di Bello
  • Bart Verheij
Chapter

Abstract

When a suspect appears in front of a criminal court, there is a high probability that he will be found guilty. In the USA, statistics for recent years show that the conviction rate in federal courts is roughly 90%, and in Japan reaches as high a rate as 99%.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This chapter has been developed in the context of the project “Designing and Understanding Forensic Bayesian Networks with Arguments and Scenarios,” funded in the NWO Forensic Science program (http://www.ai.rug.nl/~verheij/nwofs/). The first author would like to thank Infosys Limited which made possible his stay at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton for the academic year 2016–17 during which parts of this chapter were written. The second author would like to thank the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge for its hospitality during the program “Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science” which was supported by EPSRC Grant Number EP/K032208/1. The authors would like to thank Ronald Allen, Alex Biedermann, Christian Dahlman, and Norman Fenton for helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft.

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© Springer Nature B.V. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Lehman College - City University of New YorkBronxUSA
  2. 2.Faculty of Science and EngineeringUniversity of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands

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