Abstract
This chapter reports on a range of innovative data usages and methods to estimate ethnic-group specific demographic rates for input to a projection of ethnic group populations for subnational areas within the UK. A difficulty to be overcome is that few data sources exist which directly inform about geographically referenced demographic behaviour by ethnic group. We begin by defining the ethnic group categorisations of the population by age and sex used in the study. We then work through each demographic component and outline how rates and recent trends of each have been estimated by ethnic group and the geography of interest. Finally, we report on the outputs of a benchmark set of projections of populations by ethnic group for the period 2001–2051 and describe how scenarios might be applied to explore alternative future populations.
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Acknowledgements
The research reported here was supported by ESRC Research Award RES-163-25-0032, ‘What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for local areas’. 1991 and 2001 Census data were obtained via the MIMAS CASWEB facility and the SARs team at CCSR and GIS boundary data via EDINA’s UKBORDERS facility, all supported by ESRC and JISC. The Census, official Mid-Year Estimates, Vital Statistics and Labour Force Survey data for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have been provided by ONS, GROS and NISRA and the digital boundary data by OSGB and OSNI. These data are Crown copyright and are reproduced with permission of the Office of Public Sector Information.
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Norman, P., Rees, P., Wohland, P., Boden, P. (2010). Ethnic Group Populations: The Components for Projection, Demographic Rates and Trends. In: Stillwell, J., van Ham, M. (eds) Ethnicity and Integration. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9103-1_14
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