Regression Methods

  • David A. Swanson
  • Jeff Tayman
Chapter
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 31)

Abstract

Regression-based methods for estimating population date back to E. C. Snow (1911), who published “The application of the method of multiple correlation to the estimation of post-censal populations” in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Snow’s paper represents the first published description of the use of multiple regression in the estimation of population. It also discusses other methods, pointing out their strengths and weaknesses, then describes the model framework and the data used in the regression application, and applies it to districts in the U. K. In addition to being the first published report in English of the use of regression for population estimates, it sets the stage for subsequent papers by discussing it relative to other methods. A discussion is published with the paper that contains many important insights that are today commonplace in the use of multiple regression not only for making population estimates, but for general use.

Keywords

Model Invariance County Population Census Count Parent Area Forecast Interval 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Bryan, T. (2004). “Population Estimates.” pp. 523–560 in J. Siegel and D. A. Swanson (Eds.) The Methods and Materials of Demography, 2nd Edition. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Academic PressGoogle Scholar
  2. Crosetti, A., and R. Schmitt. (1956). “A Method of Estimating the Inter-censal Population of Counties.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 51: 587–590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. D'Allesandro, F. and J. Tayman. (1980). “Ridge Regression for Population Estimation: Some Insights and Clarifications.” Staff Document No. 56. Olympia, Washington, Office of Financial ManagementGoogle Scholar
  4. Ericksen, E. (1974). “A Regression Method for Estimating Population Changes of Local Areas.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 69: 867–875.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Ericksen, E. (1973). “A Method for Combining Sample Survey Data and Symptomatic Indicators to obtain Population Estimates for Local Areas.” Demography 10: 137–160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Feeney, D., J. Hibbs, and T. Gillaspy. (1995). “Ratio-Correlation Method.” pp. 118–136 in N. Rives, W. Serow, A. Lee, H. Goldsmith, and P. Voss (Eds.) Basic Methods for Preparing Small-Area Population Estimates. Madison, WI” Applied Population Laboratory, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin.Google Scholar
  7. Fox, J. (1991). Regression Diagnostics. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series, no. 79. London, England: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  8. Mandell, M., and J. Tayman. (1982). “Measuring Temporal Stability in Regression Models of Population Estimation.” Demography 19 (1): 135–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. McKibben, J., and D. Swanson. (1997). “Linking Substance and Practice: A Case Study of the Relationship between Socio-economic Structure and Population Estimation.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 24 (2): 135–147.Google Scholar
  10. Murdock, S. S. Hwang, and R. Hamm. (1995). “Component Methods” pp. 10–53 in N. Rives, W. Serow, A. Lee, H. Goldsmith, and P. Voss (Eds.) Basic Methods for Preparing Small-Area Population Estimates. Madison, WI” Applied Population Laboratory, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin.Google Scholar
  11. Namboodiri, N. K., and N. Lalu. (1971). “The Average of Several Simple Regression Estimates as an Alternative to the Multiple Regression Estimate in Post-censal and Inter-censal Population Estimation: A Case Study.” Rural Sociology 36: 187–194.Google Scholar
  12. O’Hare, W. (1980). “A Note on the use of Regression Methods in Population Estimates.” Demography 17 (3): 341–343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Schmitt, R., and A. Crosetti. (1954). “Accuracy of the Ratio-correlation Method for Estimating Post-censal Population.” Land Economics 30: 279–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Schmitt, R., and J. Grier. (1966). “A Method of Estimating the Population of Minor Civil Divisions.” Rural Sociology 31: 355–361Google Scholar
  15. Snow, E.C. (1911). “The application of the method of multiple correlation to the estimation of post-censal populations.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 74 (part 6): 575–629 (pp. 621–629 contain the discussion).Google Scholar
  16. Spar, M. and J. Martin. (1979). “Refinements to Regression-based Estimates of Post-censal Population Characteristics.” Review of Public Data Use 7: 16–22.Google Scholar
  17. Stigler, S. (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.Google Scholar
  18. Swanson, D. (2004). “Advancing Methodological Knowledge within State and Local Demography: A Case Study.” Population Research and Policy Review 23 (4): 379–398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Swanson, D. (1980). “Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates of County Populations Using Principles from Causal Modeling. Demography 17 (November):413–427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Swanson, D. (1978a). “An Evaluation of Ratio and Difference Regression Methods for Estimating Small, Highly Concentrated Populations: The Case of Ethnic Groups.” Review of Public Data Use 6 (July):18–27.Google Scholar
  21. Swanson, D. (1978b). “Preliminary Results of an Evaluation of the Utility of Ridge Regression for Making County Population Estimates.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Pacific Sociological Association, Spokane, WA.Google Scholar
  22. Swanson, D. (1989). “Confidence Intervals for Post-censal Population Estimates: A Case Study for Local Areas.” Survey Methodology 15 (2): 271–280.Google Scholar
  23. Swanson, D. and D. Beck. (1994). “A New Short-term County Population Projection Method.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 21:25–50.Google Scholar
  24. Swanson, D. and R. Prevost. (1985). “A New Technique for Assessing Error in Ratio-Correlation Estimates of Population: A Preliminary Note.” Applied Demography 1 (November): 1–4.Google Scholar
  25. Swanson, D. and L. M. Tedrow. (1984). “Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates” Demography 21 (3): 373–381.Google Scholar
  26. Tayman, J., and E. Schafer. (1985). “The Impact of Coefficient Drift and Measurement Error on the Accuracy of Ratio-Correlation Population Estimates.” The Review of Regional Studies. 15 (2): 3–1.Google Scholar
  27. US Census Bureau. (2010). Appendix A, Source Notes and Explanations, pp A1–A78 in State and Metropolitan Area Data Book: 2010. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/compendia/databooks/pdf_version.htm).

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • David A. Swanson
    • 1
  • Jeff Tayman
    • 2
  1. 1.University of California RiversideRiversideUSA
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsUniversity of California San DiegoLa JollaUSA

Personalised recommendations