Population Ageing, Population Decline and Replacement Migration in Europe

  • Jakub Bijak
  • Dorota Kupiszewska
  • Marek Kupiszewski
  • Katarzyna Saczuk
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 32)


This chapter looks predominantly at the possible role migration might play in containing ageing of European populations. We present selected results of simulations of migration flows from outside the system of 27 countries which would be hypothetically needed to maintain the sizes and structures of the populations under study. Various simulations are subsequently compared from the point of view of their plausibility and the impact of different assumptions on counteracting the negative economic effects of population ageing. The outcome of the analysis is compared with the outcomes of similar studies.

The simulations we conducted show clearly that the long-term consequences of demographic change should be treated with due attention by social policy makers and politicians. The changes in social policies, aiming at increasing labour force participation and reconciling it with support for childbearing, as well as reforms of pension systems, are at the core of the strategies to adapt social and economic systems to the new and unavoidable demographic patterns.


Labour Force Labour Force Participation Dependency Ratio Base Scenario Labour Force Participation Rate 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jakub Bijak
    • 1
  • Dorota Kupiszewska
    • 2
  • Marek Kupiszewski
    • 3
  • Katarzyna Saczuk
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Division of Social Statistics and Demography, ESRC Centre for Population Change and the Southampton Statistical Sciences Research InstituteUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
  2. 2.Central European Forum for Migration and Population ResearchIOMWarsawPoland
  3. 3.Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of SciencesWarsawPoland
  4. 4.Central European Forum for Migration and Population ResearchInstitute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of SciencesWarsawPoland
  5. 5.Economic InstituteNational Bank of PolandWarsawPoland
  6. 6.Warsaw School of EconomicsWarsawPoland

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