Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Increasing Longevity and the Economic Value of Healthy Ageing and Longer Working

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Part of the book series: Understanding Population Trends and Processes ((UPTA,volume 4))

Abstract

The chapter builds on and analyses three key quantities: life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HLE) and working life expectancy (WLE). Many important questions relate to these measures and the differences between them. Based on a model which is explained in the chapter, the author shows how changes to LE, HLE, WLE could affect various areas of Government expenditure, taxes and GDP and uses the model to consider the changes needed to put the UK economy on an ‘active ageing path’.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The total support ratio or dependency ratio, which is the ratio for the number of people aged 20–64 to the population < 20 plus population 65+, peaked in 2007 after a steady rise for over 27 years.

  2. 2.

    Disability-free life expectancy measures disability by looking at reported limitations in day to day activities such as work. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines a quantity known as HALE (health adjusted life expectancy) as the average number of years that a person can expect to live in full health. HALE is calculated by subtracting from the life expectancy the average number of years in ill-health weighted for severity of the health problem. The first example of ‘health expectancy’ was published in a report of the US Department of Health Education and Welfare (Sullivan, 1971).

  3. 3.

    Life expectancy, GDP and inequality (personal communication).

  4. 4.

    The Gini coefficient is a measure of statistical dispersion ranging in value from 0 to 1 and is used as a measure of income or wealth inequality. A value of zero corresponds to perfect equality (everyone having exactly the same income) and 1 to perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). Worldwide, Gini coefficients range from approximately 0.232 in Denmark to 0.707 in Namibia. More advanced economies tend to have a Gini coefficient of between 0.25 and 0.50.

  5. 5.

    Two types of HLE are routinely calculated from national General Household Survey based on either of the following questions: ‘Over the last 12 months would you say your health has been good, fairly good, or not good?’ and LE free from limiting long-term illness based on: ‘Do you have any long-standing illness, disability or infirmity?’. The method used by ONS to derive health expectancy is known as the Sullivan Method (Sullivan, 1971; Breakwell & Bajekal, 2005).

  6. 6.

    Disability-free LE is defined as the average number of years an individual is expected to live free of disability if current patterns of mortality and disability continue to apply. Disability definitions and measurements are only partly harmonised across countries.

  7. 7.

    A full blown demo-economic model would include the whole population, expenditure on defence, education, servicing debt et cetera and importantly non-wage GDP.

  8. 8.

    This is an estimate based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) which shows that male WLE based on being classed as economically active is 39 years and females 37 years. If periods of unemployment are included the averages fall to 35 and 33 years respectively.

  9. 9.

    The average tax rate is based solely on the costs of health and social care, social security benefits and state pension.

  10. 10.

    For a more in-depth treatment of the concept of ‘active ageing’ see for example ICCR (2005).

  11. 11.

    GDP is the main measure of national income. In economic theory, national income equals national expenditure which equals national product. Our simplified representation using a proxy based simply on wage income and so ignores other sources of income et cetera.

  12. 12.

    See also Carers, Employment and Services Report Series (2007), a series of reports produced by Carers UK and University of Leeds.

  13. 13.

    HMRC Child and Working Tax Credits statistics December 2008, table 3.1.

References

  • Alder, K., Mayhew, L., Moody, S., Morris, R., & Shah, R. (2005). The chronic disease burden – An analysis of health risks and healthcare usage. London: Cass Business School.

    Google Scholar 

  • Araujo, M. C., Ferreira, F. H. G., Lanjouw, P., & Ozler, B. (2008). Local inequality and project choice: Theory and evidence from Ecuador. Journal of Public Economics, 92(5–6), 1022–1046.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black, C. (2008). Working for a healthier tomorrow, Dame Carol Black’s review of the health of britain’s working age population. London: The Stationary Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blake, D., & Mayhew, L. (2006). On the sustainability of the UK state pension system in the light of population ageing and declining fertility. The Economic Journal, 116(512), F286–F305.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breakwell, C., & Bajekal, M. (2005). Review of sources and methods. Health Statistics Quarterly, 26, 17–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • British Heart Foundation (BHF). (2008). Coronary heart disease statistics 2005. http://www.heartstats.org/temp/2008.Chaptersp13%281%29.pdf

  • Department of Health. (1996). Burdens of disease – A discussion document. London: Department of Health.

    Google Scholar 

  • Department of Health. (2006). Health inequalities target monitoring – Life expectancy at birth. Department of Health, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Department of Health (2009, February 3). Living well with dementia: A national dementia strategy, http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/SocialCare/Deliveringadultsocialcare/Olderpeople/NationalDementiaStrategy/index.htm

  • Fang, C., & Wang, M. (2006). Demographic transition and economic growth in China. Dewen Institute of Population and Labour Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wangdw@cass.org.cn

    Google Scholar 

  • Foresight Mental Capital and Wellbeing Project. (2008). Final project report – Executive summary. London: The Government Office for Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine, 303(3), 130–135.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Interdisciplinary Centre for Comparative Research in the Social Sciences (ICCR). (2005). Overcoming the barriers and seizing the opportunities for active ageing, on behalf of the European Union (contract No: HPSE-CT-2001-000102). http://www.iccr-international.org/activage/en/index.html

  • Karlsson, M. (2007, June). Giving up smoking adds seven years to good health. London: Cass Business School Press Release, City University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kawachi, I., Kennedy, B. P., Lochner, K., & Prothrow-Stith, D. (1997). Social capital, income inequality, and mortality. American Journal of Public Health, 87, 1491–1498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krugman, P. (1996). The spiral of inequality (pp. 44–49), Mother Jones (November/December).

    Google Scholar 

  • MacKellar, L., Ermoliieva, T., Horlacher, D., & Mayhew, L. (2004). The Economic impacts of ageing. ESRI studies on Ageing, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

    Google Scholar 

  • MHA Ltd. (2008). Birmingham: Adult mortality and life expectancy. http://www.nkm.org.uk

  • Morris, S. (2007). The impact of obesity on employment. Labour Economics, 14(3), 413–433.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Centre for Social Research. (2009). Adult psychiatric morbidity in England, 2007: Results of a household survey. Leeds: National Health Service Information Centre for Health and Social Care.

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD. (2005). Long-term care for older people, the OECD health project. Paris: OECD Publishing.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Rasulo, D., Mayhew, L., & Rickayzen, B. (2008). Decomposition of changes in disability-free life expectancy by cause: England, 1991–2001. http://www.uptap.net/project23.html

  • Richardson, J., Mayhew, L., & Rickayzen, B. (2009). A study into the detrimental effects of obesity on life expectancy in the UK. http://www.actuaries.org.uk

  • Schroeder, S. A., Showstack, J. A., & Roberts, H. E. (1979). Frequency and clinical description of high cost patients in 17 acute hospitals. New England Journal of Medicine, 300, 1306–1311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seidell, J., Verschuren, W., van Leer, E., & Kromhout, D. (1996). Overweight, underweight, and mortality. A prospective study of 48,287 men and women. Archives of Internal Medicine, 156, 958–963.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86, 347–354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Baal, P. H. M., Hoogenveen, R. T. G., de Wit, A., & Boshuizen, H. C. (2006). Estimating health-adjusted life expectancy conditional on risk factors: Results for smoking and obesity. Population Health Metrics, 4, 14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Doorslaer, E., & Koolman, X. (2004). Explaining the differences in income-related health inequalities across European countries. Health Economics, 13(7), 609–628.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao, Z. (2006). Income inequality, unequal healthcare access, and mortality in China. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 461–483.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cass Business School, Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance, City University, London, UK

    Les Mayhew

Authors
  1. Les Mayhew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Les Mayhew .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Fac. Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    John Stillwell

  2. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    Martin Clarke

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Mayhew, L. (2011). Increasing Longevity and the Economic Value of Healthy Ageing and Longer Working. In: Stillwell, J., Clarke, M. (eds) Population Dynamics and Projection Methods. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8930-4_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation